Futarchy: Using market predictions to create fair and reliable common ownership

The article "Futarchy: Building Fair and Reliable Common Ownership with Market Prediction" (by Kevin Heavey) discusses a new governance model that uses prediction markets to achieve trustless common ownership. Traditional governance models (whether relying on legal protection of minority shareholders in corporations or token-based voting in DAOs) are prone to abuse of power by the majority, harming the interests of minority holders. To address this, the author proposes the futarchy model: after each governance proposal emerges, a decision market is created with conditional tokens representing "pass" and "fail", allowing the market price to reflect the expected future asset value and determine the proposal outcome. This mechanism not only prevents the majority from manipulating the market at high cost, but also allows dissenting parties to exit at a fair price, achieving true common ownership. The article also discusses the application of futarchy in asset governance, mechanisms to ensure market price rationality, and challenges such as settlement price calculation, participant behavior risks, and legal-technical issues, ultimately concluding that futarchy can bring trustless, transparent, and efficient governance transformation to complex organizations. According to reports, Alliance founder Qiao Wang has predicted that futarchy will become one of the new market narratives by 2025.