Bit (BTC) is at an important moment in the current cycle, with signs that it may be diverging from previous halving models.
Unlike previous cycles, when strong price increases occurred after the halving event, this cycle is less certain. Bitcoin's market volatility is currently largely shaped by macroeconomic changes and the impacts of large investors.
Political factors, such as Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance and the adoption of Bit at the state level, also create unexpected variables. With these new dynamics unfolding, the question is: Has Bit reached its cycle peak? Or is there still room for another price surge beyond $100,000?
The current Bit cycle appears to be diverging from previous cycles. It is showing a price trajectory different from previous halvings.
In the past, Bit has experienced strong price increases at this point in the cycle, particularly in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 periods.
However, the current cycle has witnessed a spike, starting in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and an adjustment at the end of February.
This contrasts with previous cycles, when Bit continued to rise strongly after the halving. The divergence suggests that macroeconomic factors, changes in market structure, and the presence of many institutional investors may be altering the traditional cycle dynamics of Bit.
Unlike the retail-driven speculative bubbles of previous halvings, Bit is now considered a more mature asset, which affects its price volatility.
Another important factor is the diminishing strength of price increases as the cycles progress. The exponential price increases seen in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 periods far exceed the increases in the 2020-2024 cycle and the current one.
While this is due to Bit's increasing market capitalization, it also reflects the influence of institutional investors, banks, and even governments. In the long run, this may create more stability and structured market behavior.
Despite these changes, previous cycles also had consolidation and adjustment phases before continuing their upward trend. If Bit follows that precedent, this phase may be a temporary reset before another growth move.
However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle may unfold differently, with less extreme volatility but more sustained and stable price increases, rather than the parabolic peaks of the past.
Bit's long-term holder (LTH) MVRV ratio clearly shows a declining profit pattern across cycles. In the 2016-2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8, reflecting an extremely high unrealized profit level from long-term holders before they began to distribute.
By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak had dropped significantly to 12.2. It shows a lower profit multiple, despite Bit reaching a new all-time high. In the current cycle, the LTH MVRV has so far only peaked at 4.35.
This sharp decline suggests that Bit's price upside potential is being compressed over time, consistent with the general trend of diminishing returns as the asset matures and the market structure changes.
This data implies that Bit's cyclical growth phases are becoming less explosive. This may be due to the increasing influence of institutional investors and a more efficient market.
As market capitalization increases, it requires more capital inflows to drive similar growth rates as seen in the earlier cycles.
While this may suggest that Bit's long-term growth is stabilizing, it does not necessarily confirm that the cycle has peaked.
Previous cycles had consolidation phases before reaching their final peaks. Additionally, the involvement of large institutional investors may lead to longer accumulation phases instead of abrupt peaks and declines.
However, if the MVRV peaks continue to decline, it would mean that Bit's cyclical profit potential is fading, and this cycle may have already passed its most robust growth phase.
Despite the differences in this cycle, experts remain optimistic about Bit's long-term prospects, especially with increasing adoption at the state level.
Harrison Seletsky, the business development director at SPACE ID, commented:
"Expectations were high ahead of the White House Crypto Summit, but the results were somewhat disappointing. The market did not react with too much excitement, as the US currently chooses to hold the seized BTC rather than actively buying more. However, there are more encouraging developments than the market is pricing in. President Trump not only signed an executive order for a crypto reserve fund, but this discussion is also progressing at the state level. A day before the Summit, Texas also passed Senate Bill 21, allowing the establishment of a state-controlled cryptocurrency reserve fund, including Bit and other digital assets. A year ago, none of us could have dreamed of this. Texas's move could open the gates for other states to follow suit."
Nic Puckrin, the founder of The Coin Bureau, said that Bit's short-term trajectory is still tied to macroeconomic conditions. He pointed out that investors in the current cycle had unrealistic expectations about a Bit reserve fund.
Notably, many believed the US government would buy billions of dollars' worth of new BTC, causing a supply shock. However, by any economic or political concept, that would not happen.
It is hard to imagine Congress approving the use of taxpayer money to invest in a risky asset. This unrealistic expectation is the catalyst behind the current price adjustments.
The current sell-off shows the mismatch between expectations and reality. The reserve currently only includes the cryptocurrencies that the US government already owns and will not buy new BTC on the market. Another important thing is that crypto and stock prices are not on Trump's agenda... Meanwhile, the management context is improving and the promise of integration with the traditional financial market will strengthen the important role of crypto in the US financial context. It's worth celebrating rather than complaining about the gloomy short-term context, Puckrin said. Based on all of this, the current cycle seems different from previous cycles. Therefore, despite the recent adjustments, BTC may not have reached its peak yet. New factors such as the adoption of organizations, Trump's stance on crypto, and geopolitical tensions make comparisons to past price actions less reliable. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin's price action does not follow a clear uptrend after halving. At the same time, uncertainty is higher than ever. Macroeconomic conditions, trade wars, and changing US policies are adding more complexity. With Bitcoin now part of the global financial system, its price is reacting to more than just halving cycles. The path ahead is still unclear, but the current growth cycle may not be over yet. You can view BTC prices here. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Join Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@tapchibitcoinvn Viet Cuong
