In the previous article (March 12), we briefly discussed the future direction of the crypto market. Different people may have different ideas or views, and no one can really predict the future of the market, but one thing is certain - the market cycle has certain regularity, but the market is also constantly evolving.
In fact, looking back at some of our previous articles (such as those during 2022 and 2023), some of the views we considered relatively reasonable or correct at the time may not be fully applicable today.
In this cycle, we have witnessed many changes or new unbelievable things, such as:
1) The MemeCoin Season seems to have replaced the previous Altcoin Season.
2) While Bitcoin reached the $100,000 milestone and broke new highs multiple times, the Altcoin king ETH did not even surpass its historical high in this bull market, and its current price is the same as 4 years ago.
3) The number of projects (tokens) has increased exponentially.
4) In 2024, the BTC ETF and ETH ETF will be officially approved, and more ETFs for Altcoins such as DOGE, XRP, LTC, SOL, and ADA are currently under review (although the SEC has now delayed the approval of these Altcoin ETFs, and considering the overall market performance, the probability of approval in the second half of this year may be higher).
5) In 2025, the United States will include Bitcoin in its strategic reserve plan (executive order).
6) Institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin and some Altcoins.
In this cycle, some die-hard investors who have stuck to their traditional investment mindset have suffered losses, especially those who have focused their investment on Altcoin value investment strategies.
Looking at the current market environment, it seems that people (including institutions) are unlikely to cause Bitcoin to experience another violent "rally", as excessive attention can sometimes create a certain kind of pressure, and the accumulation of this "pressure" may make it difficult for Bitcoin's dominance to decline (it may even continue to rise), and more people will start to turn to Bitcoin (more and more people are now starting to believe that investing in Bitcoin will be better than investing in other Altcoins).
Under the new changes and new operating models of the market, it seems we will no longer see the traditional Altcoin Season (where Bitcoin reaches a certain historical high and then its dominance begins to decline, leading to a scenario of all Altcoins soaring). From this cycle onwards, our so-called Altcoin Season has been replaced by the phased MemeCoin Season, Trump Season, AI Season, and other sector-specific Altcoin Seasons (or we can call them mini Altcoin Seasons) that rise and fall quickly.
The full-scale Altcoin Season of the traditional sense will be difficult to see. Unless there is a fundamental change in liquidity, where massive new capital flows into the crypto market to support the collective surge of all Altcoins.
However, mini Altcoin Seasons will still appear, it's just a matter of time. If you are still interested in Altcoins and don't want to spend too much time and effort on project research or PvP games, you can focus on projects with strong fundamentals, sustainable revenue generation, good token economics, and continuous development and vision.
In the foreseeable future, liquidity will still be mainly concentrated on BTC and a few Altcoins, and most Altcoins may face insufficient or continuously decreasing liquidity. We can only wait patiently for internal innovations (within the crypto market) or changes in macroeconomic factors (such as the expected rate cut in June this year and new policies for the crypto industry in the US this year) to alleviate the liquidity problem to some extent.
Remember the saying: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." We need to understand this statement reasonably. The so-called "rhyming" does not mean that we can just cling to the past. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, the market cycle has certain regularity, but the market is also constantly evolving. Some scenarios from previous cycles may no longer be fully applicable to the current cycle, and we need to keep up with the times and continuously adapt to and study the new scenarios of the current cycle.
Moreover, everyone has a different definition of a bull market and a bear market. Some believe that as long as it falls below the MA200, it is a bear market, and some believe that Bitcoin falling below $50,000 is a bear market... Still, the sentence in our previous article, "Forget about bull markets or bear markets," is better. We only need to focus on and identify several important stages (such as accumulation - rise - decline - despair - rise - decline - despair - re-accumulation). It's not that a bear market will lose money and a bull market can make money. In fact, regardless of the so-called bull market or bear market, as long as the market is still there, as long as the liquidity is still there, there are opportunities. We need to go with the trend and also go against the trend.
Let's talk about these today. The sources of the pictures/data mentioned in the text have been supplemented in the Notion of the talk. The above content is only a personal perspective and analysis, and is for learning and exchange purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice.
