Top analyst says the final countdown for XRP has begun and releases a timeline for a price reversal to the upside
In his latest update on X (original Twitter), market observer Steph provided detailed analysis for XRP holders and stated that the final countdown for a potential price reversal has begun.
According to Steph, there are strong signals indicating when XRP may break out and rebound. His analysis mainly focuses on XRP's current position within the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) band.
The EMA band is widely used by traders to determine whether the market is bullish or bearish. When the XRP price is below the EMA band, it usually indicates a bearish trend, which is the current situation.
Steph stated that since early February, XRP has been trading below the EMA band for 37 days. He pointed out that the last time XRP was below the EMA band was in October 2024.
He analyzed that XRP previously spent 35 days in this bearish zone before breaking out of the EMA band, triggering a significant rally. During this period, the XRP price surged from around $0.50 to over $3, before the current correction began.
Historical patterns suggest an imminent XRP reversal
Furthermore, Steph emphasized historical patterns and compared the current market conditions to previous instances when XRP broke below the EMA band. One example he cited was April 2024.
He noted that XRP spent 90 days below the EMA band and then experienced a 43% price increase. Another typical case occurred in August 2023, when XRP hovered below the EMA band for 64 days before breaking out and rallying 47%.
Therefore, Steph believes the current market situation is no different, and XRP may be on the verge of a similar breakout. He stated that the worst-case scenario for XRP is to spend another 90 days below the EMA band.
At the same time, Steph mentioned a more moderate scenario where XRP spends 64 days below the EMA band. In the past, there have been a few instances where XRP traded below the EMA band for 36 days, and currently, it has reached 37 days, which makes Steph optimistic about an imminent significant reversal for XRP.
Key price levels to watch
The analyst highlighted the critical levels that XRP needs to break through to confirm the potential price reversal. According to Steph, if XRP's daily closing price breaks above $2.35, it may trigger a substantial upward move.
He estimated that based on historical patterns, the minimum upside could be around 40%, but also hinted that the price could rise even higher.
Potential for a Short Squeeze
Another key point raised by Steph is the current funding rate for XRP. He noted that the funding rate is highly negative, indicating that there is a significant amount of traders shorting XRP.
"This has led to a buildup of liquidity above, while liquidity below is scarce. Prices typically move towards the direction of highest liquidity, so a large-scale Short Squeeze is likely to occur soon."
Steph believes that a Short Squeeze could accelerate the price surge of XRP, further fueling the expected upward trend.
