Bitcoin rebounded after falling below $77,000 on the 11th, and has been fluctuating above $80,000 in recent days. Although it hit a high of $85,000 on the 14th, it has since declined slightly, falling below $84,000 at one point. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $84,138, a 24-hour decline of 0.76%.
Bitcoin May Consolidate for 8 Months
Markus Thielen, chief cryptocurrency research analyst at 10x Research, stated that he does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin repeating the price trend of 2024, where it reached a new all-time high, but then spent most of the time in a consolidation phase.
In March 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,679, and then entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range of around $20,000, until November when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, which led to a more significant market change.
Thielen said he had this idea two months ago, when Bitcoin reached a historical high of $109,000 on the day of Trump's inauguration.
The Trend Indicates Market Indecision
In a report released on the 15th, Thielen explained that the current Bitcoin price chart is similar to a "high narrow flag", which is usually seen as a bullish continuation pattern, but currently shows signs of market weakness:
The appearance of two flag patterns, rather than a single, precise formation, weakens the strength of this technical pattern, and the current trend seems more like market indecision, rather than a clear bullish consolidation.
At the same time, according to Farside data, since early March when coin fell below $90,000, the coin spot ETF in the US has seen a cumulative outflow of about $1.66 billion. Thielen pointed out that the coin spot ETF market has not shown signs of "buying the dip":
Most of the inflows to ETFs come from hedge funds engaged in arbitrage trading. Due to the persistently low funding rates, even with the recent price correction, there is little motivation or willingness in the market to deploy additional capital.
Thielen is still uncertain whether the upward trend of coin can be restored in the short term:
At the current stage, closing short positions may be a more cautious approach, although there is no clear evidence yet that the price will rebound strongly.
