Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.65 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.7%, which is $1.61 trillion.The stablecoin market capitalization is $228.5 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.02%, of which USDT accounts for 62.89%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $84,300; ETH has shown a downward fluctuation, with the current price at $1,916.

CoinMarketCap shows that most of the top 200 projects have declined, with a few increases, including: IP 7-day increase of 25.98%, AUCTION 7-day increase of 78.12%, LAYER 7-day increase of 55.7%.

This week, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $742.9 million; the net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $143 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on March 15 was 46 (higher than the previous week), with the market sentiment this week being 1 day of extreme fear, 4 days of fear, and 2 days of neutral.

Market forecast: This week, the market has shown range-bound fluctuations, with market sentiment shifting from extreme fear to neutral, a slight increase in on-chain stablecoins, and continued net outflows from US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. US stocks have also seen a slight rebound this week. The breakout of gold futures above $3,000 can also be seen as a sign of deepening risk-averse sentiment.

More positive news: The CPI and PPI data this week were all lower than expected, but whether this can prompt the Fed to cut interest rates remains uncertain. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations in the short term until a clear interest rate cut, and liquidity will truly flow into the crypto sector.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On March 10, US President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of the US economy contracting and entering a recession this year, and acknowledged that his comprehensive economic agenda may cause short-term turmoil, but he believes it will drive future prosperity;

2. On March 10, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated in a TG group that he is not in a hurry to participate in trading at the current price level. Eugene reiterated that, as previously mentioned, the $75,000 price level is the only level he is currently interested in;

3. On March 10, according to The Block, the market's jittery sentiment has persisted since Bitcoin's volatility reached its highest level of the year last week. According to data from The Block's dashboard, Bitcoin's annualized volatility has stabilized at around 58% since reaching 59.4% on Monday. The volatility experienced over the past week is the highest since December 2022;

4. On March 11, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a post stating, "The plan is: be patient, don't rush. Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000, a 36% correction from the all-time high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market. Then we need the US stock market to free-fall, followed by the bankruptcy of traditional finance's big players. Then the Fed and central banks around the world will start flooding the market with liquidity, that's when it's time to go All in. Traders will try to buy the dips, and if you are risk-averse, you can wait for the major central banks to start flooding the market with liquidity before increasing your positions. You may not time the bottom perfectly, but you won't have to suffer through the long consolidation period and potential drawdowns."

5. On March 11, Musk stated that the X platform was hit by a "large-scale cyber attack. We are attacked every day, but this attack involved a lot of resources. It may involve a large coordinated organization or the actions of a nation. We are tracking it."

6. On March 11, in response to rumors that DeepSeek would release the next-generation R2 model on March 17, the DeepSeek official enterprise consulting account in the user group responded, "Rumor refuted: the R2 release is false information";

7. On March 12, cryptocurrency exchange Binance and Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence and advanced technology investor MGX announced a $2 billion investment transaction, which is Binance's first institutional investment and the largest single investment in a cryptocurrency (stablecoin) company to date;

8. On March 13, according to TechCrunch, Aleksej Besciokov, the co-founder of the sanctioned Russian cryptocurrency exchange Garantex, was arrested while on vacation in India. Besciokov is facing charges of money laundering conspiracy, sanctions violation conspiracy, and operating an unlicensed money transmission business. Last week, an international law enforcement coalition comprising the US, Germany, and Finland seized Garantex's servers and domains and froze nearly $28 million in crypto assets, with the assistance of stablecoin issuer Tether;

9. On March 14, data showed that with the end of Epoch 755, the Solana community's proposal SIMD-0228 to reduce SOL staking inflation has completed voting, receiving 43.6% approval, 27.4% disapproval, and 3.3% abstention, failing to pass (total voter turnout 74%);

10. On March 14, according to this week's All Devs Call, Ethereum Foundation developers will launch a new testnet called Hoodi, which will test the final Pectra deployment before mainnet activation. This new "long-term" testnet is expected to launch on March 17;

11. On March 14, the Blackrock BUIDL tokenized bond fund has surpassed $1 billion in assets under management, becoming the largest on-chain sovereign debt fund globally;

12. On March 14, according to Arkham monitoring, ARK Invest today obtained over $80 million worth of Bitcoin from Coinbase.

Macroeconomic

1. On March 12, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed decisions on several cryptocurrency spot ETF applications this morning, including Grayscale's Cardano (ADA) and DOGE spot ETFs, Canary's XRP, Solana, and Litecoin spot ETFs, as well as VanEck's Solana spot ETF;

2. On March 12, US February CPI data came in broadly lower than expected:

The unadjusted US February CPI year-over-year rate was 5.8%, a new low since November 2021;

The seasonally adjusted US February CPI month-over-month rate was 0.2%, a new low since October 2022;

The unadjusted US February core CPI year-over-year rate was 5.5%, a new low since April 2021;

The seasonally adjusted US February core CPI month-over-month rate was 0.2%, a new low since December 2022;

3. On March 12, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it has newly purchased 162 Bitcoins;

4. On March 13, according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, and the probability of no change is 98%.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from March 10 to March 14, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $742.9 million; as of March 14, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $22.455 billion, currently holding $16.413 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $48.107 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $96.866 billion.

The net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $143 million.

Foresee the Future

Event Preview

1. Digital Asset Summit 2025 will be held from March 18 to March 20, 2025 in New York, USA;

2. Next Block Expo - Warsaw 2025 will be held from March 19 to March 20, 2025 in Warsaw, Poland;

3. Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from March 30 to April 5, 2025 in Bangkok, Thailand;

4. 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held from April 6 to 9, 2025 in Hall 5BCDE of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Project Progress

1. Manta ecosystem's on-chain derivatives platform KiloEx will conduct a TGE on March 17;

2. Ronin mainnet will undergo the Cerastes upgrade on March 17, which will merge all EIPs from the Ethereum Shanghai and Cancun hard forks into the execution client;

3. Starknet v0.13.4 is planned to be deployed to the mainnet on March 17;

4. BNB Chain mainnet will undergo the Pascal hard fork on March 20, which will introduce Gas abstraction, EOA wallet smart contract, batch transactions, and support EIP-7702;

5. The deadline for claiming KAITO from Kaito AI is March 22;

6. Ethena Labs' third season airdrop activity will last for 6 months until March 23, 2025.

Important Events

1. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will launch Solana (SOL) futures on March 17, pending regulatory review, with micro (25 SOL) and standard (500 SOL) contract sizes;

2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a crypto assets roundtable on March 21 from 1 PM to 5 PM (March 22, 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM Beijing time) in Washington, with the theme "How We Got Here and How to Get Out - Defining the Status of Securities". The team consists of twelve lawyers and scholars;

3. The Federal Reserve will announce its March interest rate decision at 2 AM (Beijing time) on March 19;

4. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 8 PM (Beijing time) on March 20.

Token Unlocks

1. SuperRare (RARE) will unlock 1,334 tokens on March 17, worth about $1.36 million, accounting for 1.33% of the circulating supply;

2. Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 117 million tokens on March 17, worth about $5.12 million, accounting for 1.22% of the circulating supply;

3. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on March 19, worth about $31.61 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply;

4. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 210,000 tokens on March 21, worth about $55.7 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply;

5. SPACE ID (ID) will unlock 78.49 million tokens on March 22, worth about $18.11 million, accounting for 3.92% of the circulating supply.

About Us

As the core research and investment center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research is dedicated to providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly double updates of the "Hotcoin Selection" strategy live broadcast and the "Blockchain Headlines" daily news digest, to provide precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on advanced data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish a cognitive framework, and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, together seizing the value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.