过去一周，白宫与美联储对美股暴跌视而不见，双方似乎都无意在这场“胆小鬼游戏”中率先退让。尽管制造衰退预期大概率只是特朗普极限施压的谈判手法，但政策博弈的不确定性已进一步激发市场的避险情绪。
然而，截至目前，美股的持续下跌更像是高层主动压缩估值泡沫的行为，而非危机螺旋式爆发的前兆。最典型例子是，在美股蒸发5万亿美元的过程中，A股、港股、欧股及黄金反而大幅上涨，这与以往美元流动性危机爆发时全球市场集体...

<div>过去一周，白宫与美联储对美股暴跌视而不见，双方似乎都无意在这场“胆小鬼游戏”中率先退让。尽管制造衰退预期大概率只是特朗普极限施压的谈判手法，但政策博弈的不确定性已进一步激发市场的避险情绪。然而，截至目前，美股的持续下跌更像是高层主动压缩估值泡沫的行为，而非危机螺旋式爆发的前兆。最典型例子是，在美股蒸发5万亿美元的过程中，A股、港股、欧股及黄金反而大幅上涨，这与以往美元流动性危机爆发时全球市场集体崩溃的情形不同（美元环流是全球流动性的心脏）。尽管加密市场在美股的估值收缩中遭到流动性反噬，但比特币的结构性抗压能力依然良好，这主要体现在三方面：1、根据彭博终端数据回溯，自2020年3月全球流动性危机以来，在纳指七次单月（按30天计算）跌幅超过15%的极端情境中，比特币本次调整的幅度显著收敛（-21%）。与2020年3月的-53.6%和2022年6月的-37.2%两次历史极端值相比，本次波动率分别压缩了65.8%和50.8%。2、与历史数轮大跌均产生极其悲观的预期不同，此次下跌，比特币永续合约的资金费率和比特币季度合约的溢价率均保持稳定，这表明多头主力的意志并没有在下跌中动摇。3、此次调整不仅趋势较为平缓，分时也几乎没有出现过极端插针的情况，这表明下跌主要源于中小散户的恐慌性抛售，巨鲸投资者依然捂盘坚守。基于这些分析，笔者倾向于认为比特币本此次下跌只是连续ATH后的技术性回踩，而76000美元一带很可能就是中期大底。尽管比特币短期很难再从美股的流动性溢出中获益，但在政策利好和宏观催化剂的双重刺激下，比特币仍有望迎来新一轮的范式增长的转换。首先，随着美国加密监管从“压制模式”转向“战略支持”，比特币在全球大类资产中的地位得到了前所未有的提升。尤其是在特朗普宣布建立比特币战略储备后，主权财富基金、养老金等长期资本开始加大对比特币的配置。根据2024年四季度SEC 13F文件披露的数据，阿布扎比的主权财富基金Mubadala首次购买了价值4.37亿美元的比特币ETF，威斯康星州养老基金将比特币ETF持仓从1.64亿美元增至3.21亿美元，挪威央行投资管理公司则在四季度大幅增持MSTR和COIN，将比特币敞口扩大至3.7亿美元。按照黄金与比特币市值之比为10:1计算，全球主权财富基金和养老金对比特币的理论配置比例可达0.1%-0.2%（黄金1%-2%），即670亿至1,340亿美元。其次，在海湖庄园协议的框架下，美元高估已成为化解债务和重振制造业的主要障碍。美国未来极有可能通过主动贬值美元来重构当前的世界贸易体系和金融格局。而美元强势周期的结束将不可避免地引发资金流向黄金和比特币等中立货币。从公开数据来看，广场协议签订后的1985至1987年期间，美元兑日元和德国马克分别贬值了50%和47%，黄金价格从每盎司约300美元上涨至500美元左右，涨幅约为66%，这一过程促成了数万亿美元的资产再配置。当前美元资产的规模是1985年的数万倍，因此，美元贬值所带来的对冲需求将更加庞大。<img src="https://img.jinse.cn/7356800_image3.png"><img src="https://img.jinse.cn/7356801_image3.png">从MSTR的激进比特币投资策略，到特朗普政府将比特币纳入国家战略储备，美国正通过多维度布局构建加密资产领域的“美元的蓄水池”。这一战略的核心逻辑在于：通过掌控比特币这一全球流动性最强的加密资产，对冲美元贬值周期的系统性风险，同时重塑国际货币体系的权力格局(分流美国控制力较弱的黄金)。因此，在目标没有达成之前，美国资本在比特币领域的布局仍会继续加速推进。在美联储缩表周期内，政府支出是推动私营部门和居民收入增长的关键动力，也是支撑美国消费与投资的基本盘。若在削减政府支出的过程中缺乏美联储货币政策的逆周期调节，不仅债务削减目标难以达成，经济增长亦可能面临失速风险。这使得市场普遍担心美联储会成为特朗普战略拦路虎。但实际上，在广场协议签订的一年后（1986年），美联储连续降息3次，CPI反而从3.5%下降至1.9%，根本原因就是财政紧缩对通胀的抑制更加明显。因此，笔者认同特朗普和贝森特观点：利率会很快下降！</div>

为什么比特币年内仍会继续创新高

The past week has seen the White House and the Federal Reserve turn a blind eye to the stock market crash, with both sides seemingly unwilling to back down in this "coward's game". Although the creation of a recession expectation is most likely just a negotiation tactic of Trump's maximum pressure, the uncertainty of the policy game has further fueled the market's risk-averse sentiment.

However, to date, the continued decline of the US stock market is more like the active compression of the valuation bubble by the top-level, rather than a harbinger of a crisis spiral. The most typical example is that during the $5 trillion evaporation of the US stock market, the A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, and gold have risen sharply, which is different from the collective...

Here is the English translation:

The White House and the Federal Reserve have turned a blind eye to the stock market crash in the past week, and both sides seem unwilling to back down first in this "cowardly game." Although the expectation of a recession is most likely just a negotiation tactic of Trump's extreme pressure, the uncertainty of policy games has further fueled the market's risk-averse sentiment.

However, so far, the continued decline of the US stock market is more like the active compression of the valuation bubble by the top-level, rather than a harbinger of a crisis spiral. The most typical example is that during the $5 trillion evaporation of the US stock market, the A-share, Hong Kong stock, European stock and gold markets have risen sharply, which is different from the collective collapse of the global market when the US dollar liquidity crisis broke out in the past (the circulation of the US dollar is the heart of global liquidity).

Although the cryptocurrency market has been hit by liquidity backlash in the valuation contraction of the US stock market, the structural resilience of Bitcoin is still good, which is mainly reflected in three aspects:

1. According to the Bloomberg terminal data, since the global liquidity crisis in March 2020, in the extreme scenario where the Nasdaq has fallen by more than 15% in seven single months (calculated by 30 days), the magnitude of Bitcoin's adjustment this time has been significantly compressed (-21%). Compared with the historical extreme values of -53.6% in March 2020 and -37.2% in June 2022, the volatility has been compressed by 65.8% and 50.8% respectively.

2. Unlike the extremely pessimistic expectations generated by the historical rounds of major declines, this time the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and the premium rate of Bitcoin quarterly contracts have remained stable, indicating that the willpower of the long-term investors has not been shaken in the decline.

3. This adjustment not only has a relatively gentle trend, but also has almost no extreme needle-like situation in the intraday, indicating that the decline is mainly due to the panic selling of small and medium-sized retail investors, and the whale investors are still holding on.

Based on these analyses, the author tends to believe that this decline in Bitcoin is just a technical retracement after the consecutive ATHs, and the $76,000 area is likely to be the medium-term bottom.

Although Bitcoin is unlikely to benefit from the liquidity spillover of the US stock market in the short term, under the dual stimulus of policy benefits and macroeconomic catalysts, Bitcoin still has the prospect of ushering in a new round of paradigm growth.

First, as the US crypto regulation shifts from "suppression mode" to "strategic support", Bitcoin's position among global asset classes has been unprecedented. Especially after Trump announced the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other long-term capital have begun to increase their allocation to Bitcoin. According to the data disclosed in the SEC 13F filing in the fourth quarter of 2024, Mubadala, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, made its first purchase of $437 million worth of Bitcoin ETF, the Wisconsin State Pension Fund increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings from $164 million to $321 million, and the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management Company significantly increased its holdings of MSTR and COIN in the fourth quarter, expanding its Bitcoin exposure to $370 million. Calculated based on the market capitalization ratio of gold to Bitcoin at 10:1, the theoretical allocation ratio of global sovereign wealth funds and pension funds to Bitcoin can reach 0.1%-0.2% (gold 1%-2%), which is $67 billion to $134 billion.

Secondly, within the framework of the Mar-a-Lago agreement, the overvaluation of the US dollar has become the main obstacle to debt resolution and the revitalization of the manufacturing industry. The United States is highly likely to actively devalue the US dollar in the future to reconstruct the current world trade system and financial pattern. The end of the strong US dollar cycle will inevitably lead to capital flows to neutral currencies such as gold and Bitcoin. From the public data, during the period from 1985 to 1987 after the Plaza Accord was signed, the US dollar depreciated by 50% against the Japanese yen and 47% against the German mark, and the gold price rose from around $300 per ounce to around $500, an increase of about 66%, a process that led to the reallocation of trillions of dollars in assets. The current scale of US dollar assets is tens of thousands of times that of 1985, so the hedging demand brought by the depreciation of the US dollar will be much larger.

From MSTR's aggressive Bitcoin investment strategy to the Trump administration's inclusion of Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, the United States is constructing a "dollar reservoir" in the crypto asset field through multi-dimensional layout. The core logic of this strategy is: by controlling Bitcoin, the most liquid crypto asset globally, to hedge the systemic risk of the US dollar depreciation cycle, while reshaping the power structure of the international monetary system (diverting the US control over the relatively weaker gold). Therefore, until the goal is achieved, the layout of US capital in the Bitcoin field will continue to accelerate.

During the Fed's balance sheet reduction cycle, government spending is the key driver of income growth in the private sector and households, and the fundamental support for US consumption and investment. If there is a lack of countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy by the Fed in the process of reducing government spending, not only will the debt reduction target be difficult to achieve, but economic growth may also face the risk of stalling. This makes the market widely concerned that the Fed will become the stumbling block of Trump's strategy. But in fact, one year after the Plaza Accord was signed (1986), the Fed cut interest rates 3 times in a row, and the CPI actually fell from 3.5% to 1.9%, the fundamental reason being that fiscal tightening had a more obvious suppression on inflation. Therefore, the author agrees with Trump and Bassant's view: interest rates will fall quickly!

Why Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs this year

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> left untranslated:

[Discussing Trump's Obsession with Interest Rate Cuts: Firing Up the Printing Press to Make America Great Again?]
Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In the previous article, we mainly re-examined the development of the market. Regarding the current market sentiment, many people seem to have new hopes for the expectation of interest rate cuts (by the Federal Reserve).
The cryptocurrency market last enjoyed the benefits of interest rate cuts in 2020, when the federal funds rate (the rate adjusted by the Federal Reserve) was actually not high, only 1.5% - 1.75%. But in order to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S....

Talking about Trump’s interest rate cut complex: Start the printing press and make America great again?

Bitcoin rebounded after falling below $77,000 on the 11th, and has been fluctuating above $80,000 in recent days, although it briefly surpassed $85,000 on the 14th, it has declined slightly today, falling below $84,000 at one point, and as of the time of writing, it is reported at $84,138, a drop of 0.76% in the last 24 hours.
[<BlockTempo - The most influential blockchain news media>] Bitcoin may consolidate for 8 months
Markus Thielen, Chief Cryptocurrency Research Analyst at 10x Research, said he does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin...

Is the bull market over? 10x Research: Bitcoin may consolidate for another 8 months, the market lacks buy the dips hunting

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that the Trump administration is doing everything it can to prevent a financial crisis caused by the massive government spending of the past few years. He emphasized that the current fiscal situation is "unsustainable" and the government is undertaking an economic reset to ensure long-term stability.

<Table of Contents>
<Toggle>
- Is the government's massive spending likely to cause a financial crisis?
- Trump establishes the "Government Efficiency Department" to promote fiscal reform
- The U.S. economy still faces recession risks
- Bessent: Market correction is a healthy phenomenon, and the long-term economic outlook remains positive
...</Toggle>

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