1. Market Observation
Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC
Yesterday, YZi Labs announced an investment in Plume Network, boosting the RWA sector. QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that despite the market noise, Bitcoin has remained stable above $80,000, showing strong resilience. Standard Chartered Bank even said that if Trump's proposed "crypto reserve" plan is successfully implemented by 2025, combined with the Bitcoin halving effect, it could drive Bitcoin's price to soar to $500,000.
Glassnode founder Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended and expects prices to show a bearish or sideways trend for 6-12 months, as all on-chain indicators point to the arrival of a bear market. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger is cautious about the market outlook, warning that global trade tensions and concerns about a US economic slowdown could lead to continued US stock market adjustments, which in turn could drag Bitcoin back to the $73,000-$74,000 range. In contrast, Coinbase Institutional Research Head David Duong is relatively optimistic, believing that the current market sell-off is mainly due to macroeconomic factors and liquidity, and expects the situation to improve next quarter. He specifically pointed out that as bank reserve levels approach 10-11% of GDP, the Fed may adjust its quantitative tightening (QT) plan to maintain financial stability, which will provide support for asset prices.
From a technical perspective, Glassnode data shows that there is a clear supply gap for Bitcoin in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, where trading time is relatively short and holdings are low, with weak support. Currently, about 20% of Bitcoin supply is in a loss state, with holding costs higher than the current $83,000 price. If the $80,000 support is broken, $73,000 will become a key support level.
In the Ethereum market, Standard Chartered Bank has recently significantly lowered its ETH price forecast for the end of 2025, from $10,000 to $4,000. This adjustment mainly considers the weakening of ETH market capitalization due to Layer 2 expansion solutions, as well as the potential continued decline in the ETH/BTC ratio. It is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation is actively soliciting community feedback and exploring operational changes to adapt to market changes.
In terms of regulation and policy, QCP Capital said that although the lower-than-expected US CPI data last week provided temporary relief, the possibility of the Fed turning dovish remains limited amid ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, but market volatility is likely to remain elevated due to policy uncertainty.
Macquarie Bank's latest report has issued a warning on the overall market, pointing out that Trump's economic policies could trigger a significant stock market correction. Unless trade policy becomes more moderate and spending is cut, US real consumer spending is likely to slow significantly. The S&P 500 index has already fallen nearly 8% from its recent high, and the Nasdaq index has retreated nearly 12% from its December 2022 peak. Against this backdrop, the market is closely watching the outcome of the Fed's FOMC meeting this week, especially the potential adjustment to the quantitative tightening plan, which could have a significant impact on the crypto market.
2. Key Data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 18)
Bitcoin: $82,671.90 (-11.31% YTD), daily spot trading volume $24.47 billion
Ethereum: $1,894.96 (-42.82% YTD), daily spot trading volume $11.09 billion
Fear & Greed Index: 34 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.4 Gwei
Market Dominance: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.5%
Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, UXLINK, AUCTION, BTC, CARV
24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9681
Sector Performance: RWA sector up 9%, BSC ecosystem up 2.68%
24-Hour Liquidation Data: Global total of 101,237 liquidations, with $182 million in total value, including $44.73 million in BTC and $29.98 million in ETH
3. ETF Flows (as of March 17 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: $275 million
Ethereum ETF: -$7.29 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance will list DF/USDC, EPIC/USDC, GMX/USDC, MKR/USDC and RPL/USDC trading pairs
Binance will support Kadena (KDA) network upgrade and hard fork
The application deadline for the Sui Foundation's SuiNS RFP program is March 18 at 15:59
Binance supports BinaryX (BNX) name change and token swap to Four (FORM)
Babylon will extend the airdrop registration deadline to March 19
Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens, accounting for 4.65% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $79.8 million;
QuantixAI (QAI) will unlock about 566,000 tokens, accounting for 3960.24% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $41.4 million;
Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens, accounting for 17.50% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $17.6 million;
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech at 1:00 am on March 19
Top 500 Market Cap Biggest Gainers Today: X Empire (X) up 118.14%, Mubarak (MUBARAK) up 66.48%; Bubblemaps (BMT) up 58.14%, API3 (API3) up 37.31%; Cheems (CHEEMS) up 27.86%
5. Top News
Spot gold rises above $1,910/oz, setting a new all-time high
Blur unlocked 21.69 million BLUR tokens 4 hours ago
Vitalik sold 5,000 DHN tokens in exchange for 65.19 ETH
Bithumb will list BMT token on the Korean won market
NVIDIA GTC conference is coming up, focusing on AI computing power iteration
CryptoQuant CEO believes the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended
Canary has filed an S-1 to launch the Canary SUI ETF
YZi Labs has announced an investment in Plume Network
MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 130 bitcoins at an average price of $82,981
