Odaily星球日报讯 Renaissance Macro 的尼尔·杜塔认为美联储这次决议看起来是鸽派的。美联储认为关税不利于经济增长、失业和通胀。然而，虽然美联储将核心通胀预测上调了 0.3 个百分点，但利率中位数没有变化，仍显示出年内还会有两次降息。如果核心通胀率低于此次预测水平，那么从 2026 年到 2025 年就有降息的空间。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 Renaissance Macro 的尼尔·杜塔认为美联储这次决议看起来是鸽派的。美联储认为关税不利于经济增长、失业和通胀。然而，虽然美联储将核心通胀预测上调了 0.3 个百分点，但利率中位数没有变化，仍显示出年内还会有两次降息。如果核心通胀率低于此次预测水平，那么从 2026 年到 2025 年就有降息的空间。（金十）

分析师：美联储此次利率决议偏鸽

Odaily Odaily News reports that Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro believes the Fed's latest decision appears dovish. The Fed believes tariffs are detrimental to economic growth, unemployment and inflation. However, while the Fed raised its core inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, the median interest rate did not change, still indicating two rate cuts within the year. If the core inflation rate is lower than the current forecast level, there is room for rate cuts from 2026 to 2025. (Gold Ten)

Odaily Odaily News reports that Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro believes the Fed's latest decision appears dovish. The Fed believes tariffs are detrimental to economic growth, unemployment and inflation. However, while the Fed raised its core inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, the median interest rate did not change, still indicating two rate cuts within the year. If the core inflation rate is lower than the current forecast, there is room for rate cuts from 2026 to 2025. (Gold Ten)

Analysts: The Fed's interest rate decision is dovish

According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 98%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 80.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.

There is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week

Table of Contents
- c 1. Interest Rate Decision and Policy Stance
- Whether to maintain the interest rate unchanged:
- Policy statement wording:
- 2. Economic Forecast Adjustment (SEP)
- Growth and Unemployment Rate:
- Inflation Path:
- Market Impact:
- 3. Dot Plot's Rate Cut Signals
- Median Number of Rate Cuts in 2025:
- Long-Term Neutral Rate (r*):
- Degree of Committee Divergence:
- Market Impact:
- 4. Adjustments to the Quantitative Tightening (QT) Plan
- Pace of Balance Sheet Reduction:
- Reinvestment Strategy:
- Market...

Focus of the Fed meeting on Thursday: interest rate dot plot, quantitative tightening adjustments, tariff impact assessment...

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 100%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by May is 82.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.6%.

Analysts: The Fed's interest rate decision is dovish

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