1. Market Observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem remains resilient. He Yi has begun promoting ecological meme projects, and influenced by his comments and attention, BUBB and TAT meme coins on the Binance Chain have become recent hits. Meanwhile, competition within the Solana ecosystem is intensifying, with Pump.fun launching the native decentralized exchange PumpSwap, and Raydium also developing a meme coin issuance platform called LaunchLab.

In the broader market, BTC has recently moved similarly to the stock market, oscillating around $85,000. The latest data from CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin bull market score index has dropped to a two-year low of just 20, a 23% decline from its peak. Historical data indicates that strong rebounds only occur when the index is above 60, and the current sustained low index may signal a bearish trend. From an institutional trading perspective, the Greeks.live report shows that large transactions are primarily concentrated in the Bitcoin options market, with a $33.445 million buy-side risk reversal trade, indicating that institutional investors are actively hedging downside risks. Community reactions show a divide among Chinese and English investors, with some closely watching the critical 83-85K USD level, some expecting a brief BTC price increase before continued oscillation, and some even making aggressive predictions of BTC reaching $444,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently suggested that $77,000 might constitute a stage bottom for Bitcoin. However, he also cautioned investors to remain flexible and maintain sufficient cash, as the stock market may require further adjustment, which could impact cryptocurrency market trends.

The SEC recently made an important decision, determining that PoW mining activities do not constitute securities issuance. Meanwhile, NYSE Arca has submitted a rule change application for Bitwise's Ethereum ETF staking to the SEC. Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's digital assets head, stated that Ethereum ETFs have performed poorly since their launch last July, primarily due to inability to obtain staking returns. Additionally, Ripple's CEO anticipates launching an XRP ETF by the end of 2025, and Bitnomial has announced the first CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the US.

On the macro level, QCP Capital analysis indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce quantitative tightening (QT) from April provides an important upward catalyst, which was also a key factor in pushing Bitcoin past $85,000. However, considering the Fed's expected three rate cuts in 2025 and current market sentiment divergence, traders must closely monitor price support levels and manage risks. Simultaneously, retail investor sentiment remains cautious. The latest AAII survey shows bullish sentiment at only 21.6%, far below the historical average of 37.5%, while bearish proportion is as high as 58.1%, maintaining above 57% for four consecutive weeks.

2. Key Data (as of March 21, 13:30 HKT)