After the new US President Trump took office, his series of economic policies raised market concerns about an impending economic recession. Against this background, many investors shifted their funds to safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasury bonds. Prior to this, Bitcoin, known as "digital gold", reached a historical high of $109,382 on the day of the US presidential inauguration (1/20) with Trump's support. Although the current Bitcoin price has declined along with US stocks, now trading at $86,567. However, many analysts believe that after bottoming out at $77,000 in mid-March, Bitcoin will continue to attack and challenge the $100,000 mark. Extended Reading: Arthur Hayes: I bet Bitcoin will rise to $110,000 before adjusting to $76,000, with the Fed's slowdown in balance sheet reduction acting like a covert QE Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin May Face a Major Correction Yesterday, Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone tweeted that historical data suggests the current Bitcoin to gold ratio indicates Bitcoin may face a significant correction: Bitcoin's ratio to gold may have peaked. The ratio might suggest a major reset – "Hope is not a good investment strategy" may be embodied in the declining number of gold ounces equivalent to one Bitcoin. McGlone noted that the Bitcoin to gold ratio peaked at 40 times in 2024. Meanwhile, the US stock market's total market value to GDP ratio also reached 2.2 times, similar to historical highs in 1929 (Wall Street Crash) and 1999 (Dot-com Bubble), suggesting the current market may be overvalued. McGlone added that his research shows when the Bitcoin to gold price ratio reaches such extreme levels, it usually returns to normal levels (Bitcoin correction), which would not only affect the subsequent crypto market trend but also trigger chain reactions in other financial markets. According to TradingView data, the current BTC/XAU (gold) ratio is around 28.74, having dropped nearly 30% from its peak in December last year. Gold Expected to Reach $3,500 in Q3, Bitcoin to Retest $65,000? Based on a previous BlockTempo report, Macquarie Group analysts estimate that gold's safe-haven appeal will continue to strengthen, with spot gold potentially soaring to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter of this year. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $3,100 per ounce last month. Cointelegraph analyzed that the current Bitcoin and gold trends align with historical patterns, particularly the BTC/XAU bearish divergence from March 2021 to March 2022, characterized by price increases contrasting with declining Relative Strength Index (RSI). This pattern indicates weakening upward momentum. At that time, BTC/XAU initially fell to the 50-2W Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support level, ultimately plummeting 60%, coinciding with Bitcoin's 68% crash. Currently, BTC/XAU has completed two-stage EMA retests, and with RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum seems to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of further decline. Especially if the ratio decisively breaks below the 50-2W EMA support level (~26 XAU, currently 28.74), $65,000 could become Bitcoin's next potential downside target, meaning a potential 40% drop from its $110,000 historical high. However, Nansen analysts believe this decline is a "correction in a bull market". If the 50-2W EMA holds support, the chances of bull market recovery increase. If completely breaking below EMA, Bitcoin might enter a bear market zone. But if BTC/XAU bearish divergence repeats, it could drag Bitcoin's 2025 downside target towards the 200-2W EMA support level of $34,850.