Author: BitpushNews
Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market showed a moderate rebound, with Bitcoin price fluctuating narrowly around $87,400, and Ethereum slightly retreating to $2,070. Among mainstream cryptocurrencies, Solana (SOL) rose against the trend by 2%, reaching a daily high of $146.
As of 3:00 PM Beijing time on March 26, the total crypto market value slightly increased by 0.4% to $2.87 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 34, indicating investors remain cautious.
In news, the former "Wall Street meme" stock, GameStop, officially announced on the 25th that its board unanimously approved a resolution to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet reserves. GameStop surged 7% in after-hours trading, with its stock price rising to $27.19.
This decision had been hinted at earlier: two months ago, after a photo of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen meeting with BTC bull Michael Saylor surfaced, the company's major shareholder Strive Asset Management publicly called for adopting a strategy similar to MicroStrategy. Strive's CEO Matt Cole stated: "We believe GameStop can improve its financial position by purchasing Bitcoin, which is a strategic allocation".
Is BTC Breaking Out of Adjustment?
On-chain data reveals new trends in capital flow. CryptoQuant data shows that despite Bitcoin's stable price trend, on-chain data reveals key signals:
Institutional Fund Migration: In the past 24 hours, 17 BTC transfers exceeded $100 million, with total on-chain transfer volume surging 268%, reaching a three-month high.
Exchange Flows: Coinbase showed a maximum positive premium of 0.3%, while BTC exchange reserves decreased by 1%, with approximately 12,000 Bitcoins flowing into cold wallets. This "low volatility, high circulation" trend suggests institutional investors may be conducting large-scale asset custody transfers.
Derivatives Market Balance: Perpetual contract funding rates returned to the neutral 0.01% range, with the options volatility surface showing the put/call ratio (PCR) dropping to 0.85, indicating a slight recovery in bullish sentiment.
Notably, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen from 0.68 last week to 0.55, indicating some short-term holders are taking profits. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 12 against the trend, suggesting whales are quietly accumulating.
Hani Abuagla, senior analyst at XTB MENA, believes Bitcoin is emerging from the second deepest adjustment in this cycle, and if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations and trade policy relaxation converge, the possibility of breaking through $100,000 in spring still exists.
Macro Variables: PCE Data as Crucial Touchstone
The US February core PCE price index to be released this Friday (March 28) may become the key variable breaking market balance. As the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicator, the market expects the core PCE year-on-year growth rate to slightly increase from 1.6% in January to 2.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, it may further delay market expectations for rate cuts.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts this year have narrowed to 50-75 basis points, with the first rate cut potentially delayed to the third quarter. If PCE data reinforces the "inflation stickiness" narrative, US bond yields may rise again, and a stronger US dollar could temporarily suppress risk assets. In the current market context, subtle inflation data fluctuations may indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market's direction by changing liquidity expectations.
TradingView analysts suggest that short-term traders should focus on Bitcoin's breakthrough at the $87,000 support and $90,000 resistance levels, and construct volatility strategies with options at low IV. For medium to long-term holders, the on-chain MVRV ratio (1.98) remains below the historical bull market peak (3.5), and the address distribution indicator shows a healthy chip structure, making gradual accumulation during pullbacks a viable option.
