XRP has been experiencing a stagnation period over the recent weeks, unable to gain a clear directional momentum. Following a series of recent positive developments, the macro price movement of this altcoin shows signs of saturation.
Despite positive catalysts, XRP remains in a correction phase, making it difficult to predict the next movement. Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain, mentioned the impact of these external catalysts in an interview with BeInCrypto, but did not see them triggering any rally.
"The SEC withdrawing years of litigation against Ripple Labs is certainly positive, but this development did not immediately cause XRP's value to surge. This is because it does not directly improve utility or drive adoption. XRP remains the same today as it was before and during the SEC lawsuit." โ Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain
The ongoing high interest and discussion about the XRP ETF is also influencing volatility. Investors are expecting price surges due to the potential of a new XRP ETF.
"Speculation about the XRP ETF has not generated as much excitement as BTC or ETH ETFs. The market's enthusiasm for crypto ETFs gradually diminishes after each approval. The fourth, fifth, and sixth approved assets become just another among many, and the novelty of crypto ETFs fades." โ Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain
XRP Repeating History
XRP's network utilization and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicators show that this altcoin is currently saturated. This suggests minimal progress in price movement, and XRP needs strong market signals to establish a clear direction. Historically, XRP has experienced similar correction stages.
In 2017, the coin experienced a massive boom after a 9-month correction period. However, after breaking key levels, XRP entered a correction phase followed by a sharp decline. Currently, XRP is experiencing a 4-month correction period, which may suggest potential adjustments in the near future.
Following Bitcoin's footsteps is another pattern XRP has previously exhibited, but Hank Huang, CEO of Chronos Research, suggested a different direction.
"Within the altcoin market, liquidity remains thin and lags behind Bitcoin's depth. XRP does not fully follow the rise from Bitcoin's ETF, nor does it forge a clear independent path. Recent observed Ethereum ETF outflows emphasize that the market is tilting towards Bitcoin. Investors seem to prefer BTC's stability and 'digital gold' narrative. This change suggests bullish sentiment is gathering around Bitcoin, and XRP is struggling to attract the institutional momentum needed to break out of its current stagnation." โ Hank Huang, CEO of Chronos Research
The HODLer Position Change indicator tracking long-term holder behavior shows that LTHs (long-term holders) have been accumulating XRP during this correction period. This accumulation suggests that LTHs are confident that XRP will eventually leverage future price increases.
Their continued confidence has helped support XRP's price despite stagnation and market uncertainty. This accumulation indicates that XRP could experience a value surge when market conditions improve, and these holders have no plans to sell in the near term.
This LTH accumulation acts as a stabilizing factor, preventing significant price drops despite the lack of strong market directionality.
When Will XRP Break $2.56?
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.20 and failed to break the major resistance level of $2.56 last week. This resistance has been a crucial barrier limiting the altcoin's major upward movement over the past four months. If XRP fails to break this level, it is likely to remain trapped in its current range.
Mixed signals in the market may make it difficult for XRP to gain momentum. If market conditions do not improve in Q2 2025, the altcoin could drop to $2.02 or lower if it falls below the $2.14 support level. Such a decline indicates a potential correction movement following the saturation phase.
To invalidate the downward outlook, XRP needs to break through the $2.56 resistance and convert it to a support line. This would open the door to price increases, with XRP potentially surpassing the $2.95 and $3.00 levels. This suggests XRP could resume its upward trend after the correction period, approaching its all-time high (ATH) of $3.40.
