On March 30, Citibank summarized three main scenarios for the U.S. tariff policy on April 2 in its latest report and provided corresponding market impacts:

First, merely announcing reciprocal tariffs would have a relatively limited market reaction;

Second, reciprocal tariffs plus VAT could cause the dollar index to immediately rise 50-100 basis points, with global stock markets potentially declining;

Third, in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, including industry-specific tariffs might trigger an even more intense market reaction.

The report noted that after the S&P 500 experienced its worst first quarter since 2020, analysts widely warned that the potential for further decline is greater than potential growth. Some analyses pointed out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are crucial, stating that "the market reaction on April 2 will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs and the speed of other countries' responses to reciprocal tariffs." (Wall Street News)