4 月 4 日，据 CME「美联储观察」数据，美联储 5 月维持利率不变的概率为 60.1%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 39.9%。美联储到 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 0，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 53.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 42.2%。

<div><p>4 月 4 日，据 CME「美联储观察」数据，美联储 5 月维持利率不变的概率为 60.1%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 39.9%。美联储到 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 0，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 53.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 42.2%。</p></div>

非农数据公布前，美联储5月降息概率继续攀升至39.9%

On April 4, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 60.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0%, with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 53.2% and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut probability of 42.2%.

<div><p>On April 4, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 53.2% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 42.2%.</p></div>

Before the release of non-agricultural data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May continued to rise to 39.9%

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