On April 4, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his keynote speech on economic prospects: The Federal Reserve has not made a probability prediction for a potential economic recession, but external forecasting institutions have raised the likelihood. Tariff levels are higher than almost all forecasters' expectations, but it remains unclear where they will ultimately land. The committee is not responsible for trade, immigration, fiscal, or other policies. A year later, as the impact of Trump's policies gradually becomes clear, uncertainty should be significantly reduced.
Powell: External institutions have raised the probability of recession forecasts, and tariff levels are higher than expected
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