Master Chen's Hot Topic:
Last night's non-farm data was actually okay, not causing market panic. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief. But who would have expected the country's countermeasures to be like a heavy punch, directly stunning the US stock market. Immediately after, Powell came out to speak, and market sentiment instantly dropped from heart to feet.
We won't elaborate on Powell's words, but the core meaning is: Trump's reckless tariffs have caused chaos, uncertainty is at its peak, and inflation is expected to rise rapidly. The Federal Reserve originally wanted to push inflation down to 2%, but now it seems more difficult.
The US economic growth has also slowed down. Although not yet in recession, the downward path is inevitable. Many analysis institutions have begun to predict economic cooling, and the Federal Reserve has tacitly acknowledged this trend.
More heartbreaking is that Powell repeatedly emphasized: Don't expect additional rate cuts, only 2 cuts in 2025, no negotiation. Trump is anxious this time, calling on Powell to cut rates and save the market, but Powell refuses to budge, saying there's no chance without seeing inflation decline.
He also beautifully shifted blame, meaning there are economic risks, but Trump must bear this responsibility. The Federal Reserve won't clean up the mess and doesn't care about the risk market.
In plain words, it's three "no's" and one "nothing": no responsibility for the risk market, no blame for inflation, no denial of economic downturn, and absolutely no additional rate cuts.
As a result, NASDAQ plummeted 5.82% last night, miserably. Interestingly, MicroStrategy still rose 4% against the trend. This explains why BTC didn't dive with US stocks last night but rebounded instead.
But as the saying goes, when the building collapses, no one can take advantage. If US stocks truly crash one day, the crypto market can't expect to hide and laugh. These two markets are like a big brother and a little brother - when the big brother catches a cold, the little brother will definitely cough and sneeze.
Some analysts will surely say that when the tariff policy is implemented, it's a full negative release and the market will rise. Master Chen can only say this is naive and illogical. Tariff implementation isn't an end, but a signal of trade war.
Countries hit by tariffs will definitely retaliate, mutually harming each other, all with open cards. This is a massive negative for the global economy - where does the market get the confidence to rise?
Of course, some will ask why BTC hasn't collapsed when US stocks are nearly melting down? Simple - it's holding on. If it rebounds now, it would look too fake.
Master Chen recalls March 12, when US stocks melted down, BTC was still pretending to be calm, but crashed within days, and the Federal Reserve then released liquidity. Now that liquidity is tight again and financial products are falling miserably, everyone fears BTC will make up for the drop.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 84700
Second Resistance: 84000
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 83300
Second Support: 82500
Today's Recommendation:
Although BTC has temporarily left the upward trend, it has maintained the rebound perspective by holding above the previous low point of the trend line. The current high point area of 84K overlaps with psychological resistance, so it can be set as short-term resistance.
If this area is broken again, the short-term high point will continue to refresh, and the probability of further increase will rise. While maintaining the rebound trend, the 84.7~85K area near yesterday's moving average convergence is strong resistance. To sustain the upward trend, this area must be broken.
Weekend suggestion: Focus on the 83.3~84K box interval and enter ultra-short-term positions during pullbacks. The maximum pullback area is 82.5K and the upward trend line, where short-term entry can be attempted at the second support level.
As the weekend may continue to consolidate, you can plan to enter at the 83~84K box interval and watch for rebound opportunities near the upward trend line during downward movements.
4.5 Master Chen's Wave Trading Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended currently
Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 84700-85300 interval, Target: 83300-82500
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