On April 8, a Cryptoquant analyst theKriptolik pointed out that ETH has fallen below its "realized price" of around $2,300. The "realized price" is the price at which each ETH was last transferred on the blockchain, serving as an indicator for recalculating the market value of cryptocurrency. It represents the average price of all transactions and can more accurately reflect investors' average holding cost, typically forming key support or resistance levels.
When ETH falls below the realized price, it means most token holders are in a state of floating loss. During periods of market panic (like the current situation), this easily triggers "panic selling". If large-scale selling occurs, it signals the start of a "surrender phase" where investor confidence collectively collapses. Historical data shows that falling below the realized price usually occurs near the end of major downward trends. On-chain data indicates an 80% probability of ETH prices falling below the realized price being in the long-term bottom area, with an average rebound of 217% in the subsequent 6 months. Falling below the realized price has also been historically proven to be a strategic accumulation zone for long-term investors. In the short term, ETH falling below the realized price reflects market panic, but from a historical cycle perspective, the current price level might be constructing a rare golden buying opportunity.
