Polymarket shows that the probability of the United States falling into recession in 2025 is 60%.

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MarsBit
04-12
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Mars Finance News: According to predicted market Polymarket data, the probability of the United States falling into an economic recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this predictive market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026. Data shows that the probability of this predictive market has been continuously rising since early March, gradually climbing from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares an economic recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the prediction will be deemed "yes".

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