Odaily星球日报讯 BCA Research 首席全球策略师 Peter Berezi 表示，未来几周的主要市场主题将不是关税，而是特朗普和鲍威尔之间日益不可避免的冲突。预计美联储会抵制购买债券的呼吁，因为这样做会鼓励糟糕的经济政策，同时损害美联储的独立性。

Odaily星球日报讯 BCA Research 首席全球策略师 Peter Berezi 表示，未来几周的主要市场主题将不是关税，而是特朗普和鲍威尔之间日益不可避免的冲突。预计美联储会抵制购买债券的呼吁，因为这样做会鼓励糟糕的经济政策，同时损害美联储的独立性。

分析：焦点将从关税转向特朗普与鲍威尔之间的冲突

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: BCA Research's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezi said that the main market theme in the coming weeks will not be tariffs, but the increasingly inevitable conflict between Trump and Powell. The Federal Reserve is expected to resist calls to buy bonds, as doing so would encourage poor economic policies while undermining the Fed's independence.

Analysis: Focus shifts from tariffs to Trump-Powell clash

<PANews> News on April 12th, the consensus of "shorting the United States" has almost become global. In the trust crisis triggered by "market fluctuations entirely dependent on Trump", US assets were frantically sold off, with US Treasury bonds and the US dollar being particularly affected. After experiencing a week of massive volatility, uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, trade tensions, and concerns about potential severe economic impacts remain. Investors will closely monitor further developments and focus on actual economic impacts. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Tuesday 0:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech on navigating economic fog;

Tuesday 6:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Hark will speak about the Federal Reserve's role;

Tuesday 7:40, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will discuss monetary policy;

Wednesday 10:00, China's Q1 GDP year-on-year;

Thursday 0:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harmark will participate in a Q&A;

Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12th;

Thursday 1:15, Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club;

Thursday 7:00, 2025 FOMC voter Kansas City Fed President Schmidt and Dallas Fed President Logan will have a fireside chat about the US economy and banking sector.

Among the upcoming US economic data, the March retail sales data to be released on Wednesday will attract attention. Investors will carefully study US consumers' reactions to the policy before and after Trump's announcement of broad reciprocal tariffs and subsequent partial tariff postponement. According to analysts' estimates, March US retail sales are expected to increase by 1.4% month-on-month, higher than February's 0.2%.

Macroeconomic outlook for next week: Trump "plays too hard", Fed officials will go all out

Table of Contents
- US Bonds and US Dollar Plummet, Sending Warning Signals
- Krugman Warns: Trump's Inconsistent Policies Raise Concerns about America's Future
- Inconsistent Policies Undermine Market Confidence
- Can a Good Trade Agreement Be Reached? Difficult to Be Optimistic
- Where is the US Heading? Financial Crisis Risk Intensifies

On April 3rd, US President Trump introduced a new round of tariff policies, announcing a 10% baseline tariff on multiple countries and imposing higher reciprocal tariffs on some countries, such as China and Japan, affecting over 180 countries worldwide, causing a severe shock to the global financial markets.
However...

Why did U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar plummet as tariffs were suspended? Krugman warns: Trump's foolish policies could cause the US to lose its global economic leadership

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: After the United States suspended tariffs on popular consumer electronics, the US dollar gained a slight breathing opportunity from its recent sharp decline, which created some hope that Trump would show flexibility in executing the trade war. However, this relief may be temporary, as Trump still promises to impose specific import tariffs on consumer electronics and review microchips in national security tariff investigations. Dane Cekov, senior macro and forex strategist at Sparebank 1 Markets AS, said: "To sustain the dollar's rise, the trade war must be quickly and peacefully resolved before the US economy suffers long-term damage. As the impact of Trump's tariffs appears in hard data such as consumption, inflation, and labor market data, the dollar will continue to weaken in the coming months." (Jin Shi)

Analysis: Focus shifts from tariffs to Trump-Powell clash

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