According to a mathematical analysis by financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin has a 77% chance of reaching its All-Time-High (ATH) this year. His assessment becomes more credible when considering predictions from other experts. They believe the decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the increase in global M2 liquidity will be key factors driving Bitcoin's next bull run. In a detailed post on X, Krueger applied the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to estimate Bitcoin's potential to reach an ATH of $108,000 in 2025 from the current price of around $85,000. GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to simulate asset price behavior in finance. The model assumes the logarithm of asset prices follows Brownian motion with drift. Simply put, this means asset prices have two components: – Deterministic trend (drift): represents the expected rate of return of the asset over time. Usually expressed as a fixed percentage. – Random component (stochastic part): explains price volatility or unpredictability. It is modeled as a Wiener process (i.e., random fluctuations). GBM is used in many financial applications, including option pricing, asset price forecasting, and portfolio risk assessment. In his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC follows GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. The result: a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching $108,000 ATH. However, he adjusted the model to incorporate the coin's historical growth trend, applying a 40% power law drift. "This increased the mathematical probability to 77%. ChatGPT ran the simulation and confirmed this result," Krueger said. Krueger's revised forecast challenges market prediction numbers. According to Polymarket data, the probability of BTC reaching ATH before 2026 is much lower, at only 52%. "This is incorrect and can be traded through flexible risk hedging," Krueger affirmed. Notably, the rate is even lower on Kalshi. Their prediction suggests a 23% chance of Bitcoin hitting a new high of $150,000 in the same timeframe. Meanwhile, another analyst sharing Krueger's optimistic view forecasts an upcoming strong price increase, pointing to a strong correlation with global M2 liquidity and US dollar weakness. "April will mark Bitcoin's complete bottom and start of a price surge. This has already begun this week!" he wrote on X. He emphasized that global M2 liquidity reaching ATH is a positive signal for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin typically reacts with a 75 to 105-day lag. Additionally, the DXY index dropping to a 3-year low, along with the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, further increases expectations of Bitcoin's growth potential. "Now that M2 is rising strongly, the next step is profit capital shifting from gold to Bitcoin. This is happening and explains why Bitcoin has jumped from the super cycle zone of $74,000–76,000 to $86,000. Everything is happening as expected," he shared. This analyst predicts Bitcoin will have a short-term correction to $80,000 but maintains a long-term optimistic view. He believes BTC could reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, driven by currency devaluation and Bitcoin's fixed supply. Currently, Bitcoin is trading about 22% below its ATH and has slightly increased 0.6% over the past day. At the time of writing, BTC price is trading around $84,616. **Disclaimer:** The article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should thoroughly research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment choices. Join Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@tapchibitcoinvn Minh Anh