Since February, the US Treasury Department has injected $500 billion into the financial market by withdrawing liquidation from the Treasury General Account (TGA), aiming to fund government activities after the $36 trillion debt ceiling was exceeded on January 2, 2025.
Macro financial analyst Tomas noted that this liquidation increase has raised the Federal Reserve's net liquidation to $6.3 trillion, and could support Bitcoin price in the future, although risky assets currently show very little growth.
The TGA serves as the government's payment account at the Federal Reserve, ensuring capital for daily activities like bill payments and tax collection. When capital in the TGA decreases, it means the balance has been deployed into the broader economy, contributing to increased cash availability in the market.
Tomas explained that capital withdrawal from TGA began on February 12, after "special measures" were exhausted due to the debt ceiling. The TGA balance dropped from $842 billion to around $342 billion, releasing liquidation into the system, with target liquidation expected to increase to $600 billion by the end of April.
The analyst also noted that the current tax season will temporarily reduce liquidation, but withdrawal is expected to continue in May. If debt ceiling negotiations extend to August, net liquidation could reach a multi-year high of $6.6 trillion, which could create an upward price push for Bitcoin.
According to financial analyst Lyn Alden's research, Bitcoin has moved in correspondence with global liquidation 83% of the time in a specific 12-month period. The study calls Bitcoin a "Global Liquidation Measure", comparing Bitcoin with other major asset classes like SPX, gold, and VT, where BTC leads the correlation index with global liquidation.
Previous capital withdrawals from TGA in 2022 and 2023 boosted speculative assets like Bitcoin. Therefore, a $600 billion boost, plus additional billions in Q2-Q3, could increase BTC's value if market conditions remain stable.
Anonymous crypto trader Titan of Crypto shared a price increase outlook for Bitcoin, predicting BTC could rise to a new all-time high of $137,000 in July-August 2025. In a recent X post, the analyst pointed out a bull pennant pattern on the daily chart, with the potential for a positive breakout.
However, before implementing a long-term strategy, BTC needs to break and maintain a position above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). According to the chart, Bitcoin is facing resistance from all three main EMA indicators, specifically the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day indicators.
Reclaiming positions above each moving average on longer timeframe charts could further strengthen the price increase case, allowing cryptocurrency to retest its six-digit targets.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should thoroughly research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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