Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
Powell was quite tough last night, directly stating: "Don't expect us to rescue the market!" He specifically emphasized that the Federal Reserve will not be led by political pressure.
Isn't this like publicly challenging Trump? Trump is probably furious, and Master Chen thinks he should fire Powell and replace him with someone more obedient. What's the point of keeping such a person? He's just causing trouble!
As soon as Powell spoke last night, the market immediately wilted. Why? Master Chen previously said that the core of the market's big drop is too much policy uncertainty, coupled with expectations constantly being slapped in the face.
Tariff issues are making people anxious, and in such times, only tariff policies can solve the problem. The Federal Reserve jumping in to meddle won't help. As for the Federal Reserve's next move, it depends on the situation after tariffs are implemented in early April. How's inflation? How's the economy?
Didn't Federal Reserve Governor Waller say the other night that if tariffs are just 10%, inflation won't have much reaction, the economy will slow down a bit, and rate cuts might be possible? But if there's a big impact, Powell could play the role of a white knight, not only cutting rates but possibly taking big moves like buying assets to expand the balance sheet.
As for quantitative tightening, it will definitely stop by the end of the second quarter or latest third quarter (Powell will definitely say it's a "pause"), their usual routine is to suppress the market first and not let you get too excited too soon.
If they shout about rate cuts now, there won't be any surprise when it actually happens. So Powell's toughness this time makes Master Chen feel that the previous speculation about rate cuts in May or June still has hope. It's just deliberately holding back and showing the Federal Reserve's stance.
Back to BTC, the short-term top is around 86.8k, and ETH at 1688 is the short-term ceiling. The closer the rebound is to these two points, the more comfortable the short position. Didn't Master Chen bury a short position at the 85400 area in the public account article? The highest point in the early morning was around 85450, precisely capturing over 2000 points!
The current market fundamentals are bearish. It's just a matter of time before it collapses. A big rise depends entirely on news. Gold at new highs, bond yields at new highs, trade war heating up, US dollar depreciating, and the three major US stock indexes have all experienced a death cross.
Although the tops of BTC and ETH don't seem far, without major news, they can't break through. The current volatility is not large, and ETH seems quite strong because BTC is hovering. Once BTC drops in volume below 83k, ETH will definitely break 1500.
This BTC drop is not just its own issue. Unless Trump cancels the trade war or Powell cuts rates early, a big rise in the near future? Don't even think about it. So Master Chen has been closely watching tariffs and Trump's movements, which is the banker's clear card.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 85000
Second Resistance: 84400
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 83200
Second Support: 82700
Today's Recommendation:
First, from a technical perspective, if the current high point cannot be broken, the trend may continue to reverse, and there might be more profit-taking selling in the short term.
The current short-term resistance is at the overlapping position of the 60 and 120-day moving averages, which is around 84.4k. If it continues to rise, it must break through this area to continue the black trend line above the 1-hour level.
The first support at 83.2k is the current key position, which was held during yesterday's sharp drop. If it breaks below this point, there might be disappointing selling, increasing the probability of further decline.
Master Chen's Wave Trading Buried Position on 4.17:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended at the moment
Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 86000-86800 area, Target: 85000-84400-83200
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