Web3 venture capital accelerator AllianceDAO's two founders, Imron Khan and Qiao Wang, delved deeply in their latest Podcast into analyzing how Trump's radical tariffs have led to global market and geopolitical risk instability. They not only view US stocks negatively but also for the first time discussed predictions about a potential Taiwan Strait crisis, which could severely impact TSMC's supply chain and the robotics industry. Regarding cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are currently the emerging startup-oriented trend, and projects like Poofne, 01.exchange, and Slop are seen by them as rare potential projects with the strength to break through in this depressed market.
Table of Contents
ToggleTrump Escalates Trade War and Threatens to Oust Fed Chairman, Global Investor Confidence Wavers
Wang opened by pointing out that the current trade war not only affects businesses and consumers but also drags down the entire market.
He further clarified that retail investors are still clinging to the fantasy that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will intervene to save the market, but everyone is still holding on, not selling what needs to be sold, making the entire market look abnormal.
Trump claims he will "quickly reach an agreement" with China while continuously threatening to replace Fed Chairman Powell, and this uncertainty is creating market chaos.
(French Finance Minister directly criticized Trump's tariffs as damaging the dollar's credibility, supporting the Fed and Powell's independence)
US Stocks Overvalued, Economic Optimism a Facade, People Still Deceiving Themselves
Discussing fundamentals, Khan believes that current US corporate profitability remains unchanged, but stock prices are still too expensive, with the market still fantasizing that Trump's policies will be beneficial. Once tariff policies are finalized, the stock market could potentially crash.
Worse yet, high tariffs will directly impact corporate profits and consumer confidence. "A 10% tariff isn't a price increase, it's a cost increase. If a company's gross margin is only 10%, it directly becomes a loss," Khan directly points out the problem.
AI Startup Bubble Warning Emerges, OpenAI Expands Frequently
Regarding the AI market, Khan mentioned that OpenAI recently acquired Windsurf for $3 billion and has twice attempted to acquire Cursor. They believe this is not just about acquiring talent but also about capturing user behavior data to enhance their own models.
They also simultaneously pointed out that competition in the AI field is extremely fierce, with many Y Combinator startups unable to survive the emergence of new models. "Every time a new model comes out, about half of the startup projects have to start over."
Trump's Policies May Escalate Taiwan Strait Risks, Military Conflict Could Severely Damage Chip Supply Chain
Discussing the greatest market risk from deteriorating US-China relations, Wang candidly stated: "What I'm actually most afraid of is not the economy, but war."
He estimates that the probability of a war across the Taiwan Strait within the next three years will reach 50%, which will severely damage the global chip supply chain, especially in the semiconductor and robotics industries.
TSMC, Bitcoin, Google, Tesla are core assets, but are being reduced
Regarding his current investment strategy and allocation, Wang mentioned that he holds stocks in TSMC, Tesla, Google, PDD, but has been gradually selling TSMC due to the unstable situation across the Taiwan Strait, and holds Bitcoin as a digital gold for hedging.
Khan, on the other hand, has sold all his stocks, only holding Bitcoin, Solana, and some meme coins like Fartcoin.
Stablecoins become a new trend, startups bet on Web3 payments
Discussing Web3 startups, both mentioned that one of the hottest startup projects currently is "stablecoins", with many startup entrepreneurs focusing on specific regions and applications, such as remittance and savings functions.
They also pointed out that the statement "I am a stablecoin but not a cryptocurrency" makes high-level talent more willing to invest, accelerating integration with traditional finance.
Good Web3 projects still exist, Poofne, 01.exchange, Slop get mentioned
Poofne: A crypto application AI development platform built by a team with backgrounds from Phantom and Coinbase
01.exchange: Designed to create an upgraded trading experience for traders, aiming to replace projects like BullEX that have slowed down development
Slop.com.club: Using Google's latest video models (Veo, Kling), users can transform images, text, and sound directly into ultra-fast generated videos, then tokenize on-chain or interact using content coins.
Venture capital is pessimistic about US stocks, focusing on AI and stablecoin startups
From the conversation, a few things can be focused on, which are that both, under the premise of no war outbreak, believe in:
- Uncertain in the short term
- Bearish in the medium term
- Still optimistic about stablecoin and AI crypto project development in the long term
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
