Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Editor: TB, ChainCatcher
Will the "Delisting Bomb" Become a "Wealth Rocket"?
On April 24, Binance announced the delisting of the ALPACA token. Normally, ALPACA should have faced selling, panic, and a sharp decline. However, ALPACA defied expectations, with its price rising over 650% since the announcement.
Is this bizarre rebound a project's "last gasp," or a premeditated plot by capital players? Behind this sudden surge, a storm might be brewing...
Image source: coingecko
Delisting Countdown Turns into a "Short Squeeze" Moment
On April 10, Binance launched its second token delisting vote. A week later, the results were revealed, with ALPACA ranking seventh among 17 candidate projects, hinting at a delisting crisis. On April 24, Binance officially announced the delisting of ALPACA on May 2, with perpetual contract settlement scheduled for April 30. Upon the news, ALPACA's price plummeted from $0.0329 to $0.029, with market cap shrinking to $5 million.
Just as the market believed ALPACA would collapse, a dramatic scene unfolded: the price surged from $0.029 to $0.0857 within an hour, a staggering 195% increase. This unexpected surge caught short sellers off guard and set the stage for an even crazier trend.
On April 25, Alpaca Finance officially stated that due to trading volume exceeding 1 billion tokens, market makers had requested additional token issuance to maintain liquidity, but canceled the plan after community opposition. This change undoubtedly dealt another blow to the shorts.
On April 26, ALPACA's liquidation volume even surpassed Bitcoin, primarily consisting of short liquidations. The entire market seemed to have become a "precise harvesting battle" against short sellers.
Image source: Coinglass
"Short Squeeze Script"
Regarding ALPACA's rebound, He Yi suggests this might be investors buying the shell to quickly recoup their investment. Based on community users @LuBtc888, @0x_ooorange, and @Mumu_yay's analysis, we've compiled a complete "short squeeze script":
I. Pre-positioning Before Delisting
Before the delisting announcement, "market makers" might have obtained advance information or noticed anomalies, with suspected accumulation around April 19. During this period, ALPACA's trading volume on Binance significantly expanded, but price increases remained extremely limited.
II. Creating Expectation Misalignment, "Negative Sentiment Trap" Appears
The market generally expected "delisting = sharp decline," with retail and short-term speculators collectively going short. ALPACA's contract open interest surged. "Market makers" took advantage, accumulating at low prices, establishing large long positions, then pushing up spot prices to trigger a chain of short liquidations.
III. Rule Changes Accelerate Short Squeeze
Binance recently shortened funding rate collection from 8 hours to 1 hour. ALPACA's funding rate once dropped to -2%, forcing shorts to not only face liquidation risks but also pay high "interest" hourly, accelerating position closures and price increases.
IV. Profit Model of Main Players
Spot Market: Accumulating tokens during delisting panic, creating a "last-minute revival" illusion to attract retail investors before selling at high prices.
Futures Market: Holding massive long positions, continuously collecting interest from shorts through negative funding rates, achieving two-way profits.
ALPACA's Future Uncertainty
Market opinions on ALPACA's future trend differ. @Mumu_yay believes the delisting announcement will trigger liquidation mechanisms, automatically settling positions for both long and short sides. @Kuang Ren suggests market makers might establish long positions at high points, then reverse to short, dumping spot prices and maximizing profits through liquidation.
As the May 2 delisting date approaches, ALPACA's fate remains undecided. Its price trajectory has become a microcosm of capital games in the crypto market. Markets always cycle, and similar scripts may replay with different actors.
In turbulent waters, rationality remains the only reliable anchor for investors. Facing short-term emotions and temptations, only by staying clear-headed can one avoid losing direction amidst the noise. Avoid high-risk tokens lacking fundamental support, and be wary of hidden market manipulations. In market navigation, only steady helmsmen can avoid hidden reefs.
