Trump's "Golden Dome" GOLDEN DOME A new "Star Wars" that will cost trillions and inevitably trigger a new arms race. While the world is still discussing how the trade war ended the existing trade order, Trump and his allies (such as Musk, Peter Thiel) are already focusing on the new Cold War. Here are the details of this plan that may once again bring humans into an arms race, and its key highlights (including the impact on listed companies): 🧵

Original post by Stay Up Late, don’t forget to like, follow and forward before reading 1. “Golden Dome”: Ambition to Challenge Nuclear Balance The Trump administration’s “Golden Dome” plan initially borrowed the name of Israel’s “Iron Dome”, but quickly changed its name to highlight its completely different grand ambition. This is not a simple copy of the “Iron Dome” used to intercept rockets, but aims to build an “ultimate shield” covering the US mainland and defending against strategic threats such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.

2. Technical core: Reviving the space-based dream of "Star Wars" The technical core of the "Golden Dome" is its ambitious space deployment plan, which can be regarded as a modern revival of the "Star Wars" (SDI) initiative of the Reagan era. Unlike the SDI era when most technologies were in theory, today's supporters believe that technologies such as artificial intelligence, large-scale low-orbit satellite constellations (such as SpaceX's experience), and advanced sensors have matured, making the previous vision possible.

3. Industry earthquake: the game between traditional giants and Silicon Valley upstarts The "Golden Dome" is hailed as a catalyst that may trigger the "biggest defense boom in decades" and is expected to inject hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars into the defense industry. Traditional defense giants such as Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) have an advantageous position with their existing mature systems (Aegis, THAAD, GMD, etc.) and deep government relations.

4. Geopolitical shock waves: arms race and the dilemma of allies The "Golden Dome"'s attitude of seeking absolute security may cause severe geopolitical turmoil around the world. Its intention to challenge the balance of MAD nuclear deterrence can easily be interpreted by Russia and China as the United States seeking unilateral strategic advantages or even preparing for a preemptive strike, thus triggering a new round of dangerous arms race.

5. Use the new Cold War to stimulate the advancement of American manufacturing and technology Just as the first Cold War created chips and the Internet, which have advanced human civilization, the new Cold War opened by the Golden Dome may also greatly accelerate technological progress and improve American manufacturing.

6. Analysis of potential beneficiary industries and enterprises The massive scale and technical complexity of the "Golden Dome" program means that it will have a profound impact on the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (DIB), involving many traditional defense contractors, emerging technology companies, and potential innovative contract models. SpaceX, Palantir (PLTR),

7. Risk Analysis: The "Golden Dome" is the Trump administration's signature policy agenda, initiated by its executive order and vigorously promoted by congressional Republicans. It is placed within the framework of "peace through strength" and is closely linked to other priorities of the Republicans and conservatives (such as tax cuts, government reforms, and adjustments to military personnel policies).