Bitcoin is currently oscillating narrowly around $95,000. However, earlier this week, BTC's market capitalization proportion of the entire cryptocurrency market value has extremely approached 65%, creating a new high since February 2021.
The significant increase in Bitcoin's market share is primarily driven by institutional investors' behavior patterns and changes in overall cryptocurrency market value. Unlike the past pattern dominated by retail investors with rapid fund rotation between BTC and Altcoins, the current market witnesses continuous and stable Bitcoin asset accumulation by institutional investors such as BlackRock, Strategy, and others.
This institutional buying power provides strong bottom support for Bitcoin's price stability and market share.
Meanwhile, although Bitcoin's market share rose in early May, the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency market showed a downward trend during the same period. This indicates that compared to Bitcoin's relatively resilient market value, the Altcoin market is experiencing greater capital outflow pressure, and their relative changes jointly propelled Bitcoin's market share proportion.
Will the Altcoin season still come?
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's market share previously reached higher peaks in 2019 and 2021 (approximately 73% and 74% respectively), and these peaks were often followed by significant Altcoin market rallies. However, current market discussions about the potential arrival of an Altcoin season show clear and diverse viewpoint divergences.
The optimistic camp believes that once Bitcoin's market share encounters pressure at key resistance levels (such as 65% or 71%) and begins to decline, funds will consequently shift to the Altcoin domain, reproducing the past "Altcoin season" prosperity.
However, cautious or skeptical observers point out that recent data shows a low proportion of Altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the past 90 days (only about 17%), which does not demonstrate strong fund rotation signs. Some market voices also believe that Bitcoin's market share might need to break through 70% or even higher to truly usher in a sustained and comprehensive Altcoin market.
Moreover, it's worth noting that a comprehensive Altcoin market launch typically requires broader retail investor participation enthusiasm and active developer community support for crypto projects, but the market currently lacks potential new narratives.
Although historical data and technical charts provide valuable reference directions, large institutional deep involvement and increasingly complex macroeconomic environments add new variables and challenges to market patterns. Facing such a complex and changing situation, investors should not focus solely on market share as a single indicator but need to conduct comprehensive assessments from multiple dimensions, including specific cryptocurrency project fundamental values, overall market sentiment atmosphere, and potential global economic policy trends.
