From macro policies, on-chain data to TOKEN2049 conference insights, analyzing the next wave of key drivers

Macroeconomic environment and capital sentiment: cautious repair under policy uncertainty

Recently, the global financial market has undergone complex changes due to the combined influence of macro policies and political events. The uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards the timing of interest rate cuts have brought volatility to overall risk assets, but the cryptocurrency market has still shown remarkable resilience and shown signs of a structural recovery. Despite the price recovery, most traders and institutions remain on the sidelines, and the pace of capital inflows is gradual, indicating that the market is exploring a new equilibrium point.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for April showed 177,000 jobs added, beating analysts' expectations of 133,000, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. Meanwhile, the initial estimate of U.S. GDP in the first quarter showed a 0.3% decline on an annualized basis, mainly due to increased imports and reduced government spending. The U.S. dollar index was weak, falling 0.16% to 100.0435 on May 2, and has fallen more than 8% this year. The gold price reached $3,240.59 per ounce on May 5, up 23.43% this year, setting a new record high.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 rebounded 1.8% this week, with technology stocks showing mixed performance. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.59%, Tesla (TSLA) rose 2.38%, Palantir (PLTR) surged 6.95%, while Apple (AAPL) fell 3.74%. This divergence reflects the market's cautious attitude and selective allocation strategy towards highly valued assets.

Cryptocurrency market performance: Bitcoin rises steadily, while Ethereum moves forward under pressure

In a complex macro environment, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated independent trends and resilience. Bitcoin prices have performed strongly over the past week, rising 12.82% from April 28 to May 5. On May 2, the price rose to $97,436, and as of May 4, it had reached $95,967, with a 24-hour trading volume of $10.937 billion. This uptrend is supported by technical indicators, with the Fear & Greed Index showing a reading of 65 (Greed), reflecting a clear improvement in market sentiment.

Bitcoin's strong performance was mainly driven by continued increase in institutional investment and technical breakthroughs. Bitcoin exchange outflows have surged, suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating. According to Crypto Quant, outflows are rising again after a brief pause in early April. Technically, Bitcoin price broke through the key resistance level, the 50-day moving average rose, the 200-day moving average maintained an upward trend since the end of April, and the relative strength index (RSI) was at 70.46, supporting the short-term bullish trend.

Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance is relatively flat. As of May 4, the price of Ethereum was $1,841.63, and the overall trend was neutral. Technical indicators show that Ethereum’s 50-day simple moving average is $1,827.05 and the 200-day moving average is $2,616.49, with the price in a consolidation range between the two moving averages. Despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade on May 7 that will bring technical improvements to the Ethereum network, the market reaction to it has been limited. Notably, Ethereum’s base layer activity declined in April, with only 3.18 ETH in blob fees collected and an average gas fee of $0.16, the lowest level so far in 2020.

TOKEN 2049 Dubai 2025 Conference - Stablecoins lead the industry to reshape the future blueprint

The just concluded TOKEN 2049 Dubai 2025 Conference (April 30-May 1) became the focus of the industry, bringing together more than 15,000 participants to outline the future path of industry development. The focus of the second day of the conference fell on the field of stablecoins. In the panel discussion on “Reshaping Payments with Stablecoins”, industry leaders emphasized how stablecoins have evolved from simple trading tools to a reliable store of value and a foundation of market trust. In a bear market environment, stablecoins such as USDT , USDC and DAI provide a "stabilizer" role, helping to preserve capital and smoothly transition between assets. Their anchored value alleviates market panic and provides stable liquidity during periods of extreme volatility.

The product launch on the first day of the conference showed the rapid development of the stablecoin field: World Liberty Financial announced the integration of WLF stablecoin USD1 on the TRON network, and Executive Vice President and co-founder Zach Witkoff said that he planned to mint hundreds of millions of dollars of USD1, and expected the market value to grow to billions of dollars in the future.

Payment infrastructure has also made a major breakthrough. Mesh announced its integration with Apple Pay, allowing seamless transactions from crypto to stablecoins. These moves point to the trend of stablecoins infiltrating into everyday payment systems. In addition, the conference also highlighted important development directions such as asset tokenization (RWA), Web3 and AI+ blockchain projects , multi-chain ecosystems, and regulation and compliance. In particular, Zodia Custody’s strategic move to acquire Tungsten Custody Solutions to expand its business in the UAE demonstrates the layout of institutions in the crypto financial infrastructure and the trend of crypto companies actively seeking regulatory compliance.

Market Outlook and Strategic Thinking: A Transformation Period with Both Opportunities and Risks

Looking at the current cryptocurrency market and the information revealed at the TOKEN 2049 Dubai Conference, we are in a period of industry transformation where opportunities and risks coexist. At this stage, investors and participants need to think more strategically about market movements and asset allocation.

Short-term market observations and focus :

1. Can Bitcoin's strength continue : Although analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's short-term trend and expect it to continue its upward trend in the coming weeks, whether this optimistic expectation can be fulfilled depends largely on the performance of US economic indicators and changes in the policy environment. The release of US employment and inflation data next week will be an important observation point, which may have a direct impact on market sentiment and capital flows.
2. Dollar and gold trends : The continued decline in the US dollar index and the record highs in gold prices reflect concerns about the US economic outlook. If this risk aversion continues, it may continue to support the performance of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, but it may also lead to increased volatility in risky assets.
3. Institutional capital flows : Bitcoin ETF capital inflows deserve close attention, especially the capital flows of institutional products such as Fidelity and Bitwise, which will be an important indicator of the shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the continued decline in exchange Bitcoin reserves suggests that long-term holders are still actively accumulating.

Mid- to long-term trends and strategic thinking :

1. The rapid development of the stablecoin ecosystem : The central position of stablecoins at the TOKEN 2049 conference shows that stablecoins are shifting from a simple medium of exchange to a payment infrastructure and asset preservation tool. The expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem could become the driving force behind the next wave of crypto innovation as institutions launch innovative stablecoin products and payment solutions.
2. The trend of asset tokenization is accelerating : The tokenization of traditional financial assets (RWA) is another focus of the conference, reflecting the trend of crypto technology penetrating into the real economy. Investors can look to projects that provide infrastructure for asset tokenization, as well as protocols that work with traditional financial institutions.
3. Evolution of the regulatory environment : The shift in regulation from restriction to active guidance may create a more favorable development environment for compliant crypto projects. Institutions such as Zodia Custody are accelerating their layout in friendly regulatory regions such as the UAE, demonstrating the importance that institutions attach to compliance infrastructure.
4. The integration of AI and blockchain : This topic received widespread attention at the conference, especially in practical application fields such as medical care and data analysis. Investors can focus on AI projects that provide AI+blockchain infrastructure, as well as solutions that focus on specific industry applications.
5. Coexistence and development of multi-chain ecology : Judging from the discussion at the conference, the industry is moving from single public chain competition to a multi-chain coexistence pattern. The specialization and differentiated development of each public chain in different application scenarios provides investors with opportunities for diversified allocation.

Conclusion :

Although the current market has seen a technical recovery and the tone of macroeconomic policies has eased, judging from the on-chain data, capital structure and industry development, the market is still looking for a new equilibrium point and clear growth drivers. A true structural recovery will depend on a clearer policy environment, continued inflows of institutional funds, and whether industrial innovation can be translated into actual applications and user growth.

In such a market environment, investors should remain patient and think strategically, focusing on substantial technological breakthroughs and user adoption rather than short-term price fluctuations. In particular, innovative directions such as stablecoins, asset tokenization, and AI integration demonstrated at the TOKEN 2049 conference may become the core driving force of the next market cycle and are worthy of active layout and long-term attention.

As May enters the second half, the release of US economic data and changes in the global policy environment will provide the market with more clues. Whether it is institutional or individual investors, finding certainty in uncertainty and grasping trends in change will be the winning strategy at this stage.

About BingX

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