Goldman Sachs pushes back Fed rate cut forecast to year-end, lowers chance of U.S. recession

Odaily Odaily News Goldman Sachs adjusted its expected time for the next Fed rate cut to December (previously expected to be July). The bank's analysts said: "In view of the development of the situation and the significant easing of financial conditions last month, we raised our forecast for the annual growth rate of the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and reduced the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%. At the same time, we have lowered our expectations for the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation path, and expect it to peak at 3.6% (previously expected to be 3.8%)."