On May 14, according to Coindesk, the continuous rise of US government bond yields (especially Treasury yields) has traditionally been seen as a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). However, analysts point out that the recent resilience of US bond yields actually conceals a deeper positive logic for Bitcoin.
Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, noted that the current yield strength reflects market pricing of fiscal expansion expectations during Trump's term. "With soft CPI causing bond declines, it shows fiscal expansion is unstoppable. Before the midterm elections, all parties are making bold bets, temporarily setting aside fiscal deficits - which is a gospel for Bitcoin, gold, and stocks, but a nightmare for bonds." According to Hakimian's calculations, Trump's tax cut plan will immediately add $2.5 trillion to the fiscal deficit. Bloomberg-disclosed drafts show the plan includes $4 trillion in tax cuts and $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, with a net expansion of $2.5 trillion.
Arif Husain, fixed income chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, believes fiscal expansion is about to become the dominant market narrative. "Fiscal expansion may stimulate growth, but more critically, it will intensify pressure on the government bond market. I am now more convinced that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 6% in the next 12-18 months."
Anonymous research institution EndGame Macro analyzed that the persistently high US bond yields reflect a "fiscal-driven" phenomenon, essentially representing a repricing of US sovereign risk. When inflation declines but bond yields continue to rise, the issue is no longer the inflation cycle, but the sustainability of US debt issuance itself. Rising yields will increase debt servicing costs, forcing the government to issue more bonds (expanding supply), further pushing up interest rates and potentially triggering a sovereign debt crisis. In this scenario, Bitcoin, viewed as an anti-establishment asset, may highlight its allocation value.
