BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicted on his blog on 5/15 that Bitcoin will surge to $1 million before 2028, with "US debt devaluation" and "foreign capital returning to the US" driving Bitcoin's massive rise, even calling out to European citizens: "Transfer your money out quickly, or you won't be able to move your assets!"
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ToggleTwo Major BTC Surge Drivers: US Debt Contraction & Foreign Capital Return
Hayes stated that BTC's future surge will have two major drivers:
US Debt Devaluation: As the US continues to print money and expand debt, foreign governments and investors holding US debt may face asset shrinkage.
Foreign Capital Repatriation: As countries tighten financial controls, capital will withdraw from high-risk or regulated countries, seeking value-preserving alternatives, with BTC being one of them.
Hayes directly stated: "These two key factors will drive BTC to break $1 million before 2028."
2028 US Election Results Far-Reaching Impact
Hayes said this prediction seems crazy, as currently with BTC at $100,000, it would need to rise 900% to reach the target. But he believes:
"I mention 2028 because it's the US presidential election. Who comes to power and what policies they push could completely change the situation."
Currently, the Trump administration is relatively friendly to cryptocurrencies, but a change in power could reverse policies. This means the future of not just BTC price, but the entire crypto ecosystem is tied to political changes.
European Capital Control May Escalate, Hayes: Europeans Flee Quickly
Compared to the US, Hayes is more worried about Europe's future. He directly states that Europe is moving towards China-style financial control, but less efficiently.
"Even China hasn't banned people from owning Bitcoin, because they know it's impractical and inefficient. Those ridiculous European governments are still trying this approach, and unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank will likely start trying to control or ban cryptocurrencies."
He even used the wordplay "Euro-poor-peans" to remind everyone to "move money out now!" Otherwise, funds might get locked in the system someday.
Long-Term Longing Camp Grows Strong, BTC Million Per Coin Just a Start
Actually, Hayes has been bullish on BTC price for a while. From predicting a recovery to $100,000 in April this year to believing $70,000 was a short-term low, he's been consistently Longing. Many financial giants also agree:
Fidelity: Long-term bullish on BTC value significantly increasing
Michael Saylor: Predicts BTC total market value will reach $10 trillion, with single BTC reaching $13 million by 2045
From the image below:
"US Long-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT) have halved since 2021, dropping from the high to $85.5, representing significant bond market contraction. Reflecting serious market concerns about future inflation, interest rates, and fiscal deficits, traditional hedge assets are losing confidence."
Crazy Talk or Foresight, Market Waits and Sees
Whether BTC can truly rise to $1 million in just three years is hard to determine. But what's certain is that the current global financial environment has high variables, from the US election to central bank policies and capital flows, which could bring dramatic changes.
Hayes' statements might be radical, but for many in the crypto space, this is more like a collective response of "distrust in the traditional financial system". The next three years will be the true test of whether Bitcoin can prove itself as "digital gold".
(Coinbase joins S&P 500, MicroStrategy buys Bitcoin again, Arthur Hayes shouts: Buy in fully!)
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk, with potentially extreme price volatility. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
Famous Short investor Jim Chanos recently stated in a CNBC interview that strategies like using fundraising to buy Bitcoin and then claiming "we own Bitcoin" to increase company valuation are extremely absurd, and suggested investors Long Bitcoin while Shorting MicroStrategy for arbitrage.
ToggleFamous Short Investor Jim Chanos
Jim Chanos is a well-known bearish investor on Wall Street and the founder of Chanos & Company.
Chanos became famous in the early 2000s for successfully predicting the collapse of Enron. He focuses on identifying abnormal behaviors in corporate financial reports, especially high-speculative phenomena that the market has not noticed. In the past, he conducted short selling against fraudulent activities, but now he is more focused on observing the market's "irrational exuberance".
He currently manages a family office and continues to provide advice to institutional investors.
Chanos Longing Bitcoin, Shorting MicroStrategy
Jim Chanos mentioned: "During bull markets, investors give premiums for promises; during bear markets, reality gets discounted." He believes that certain areas of the current market are returning to a state of "paying a premium for promises", indicating a resurgence of speculative sentiment.
His current recommended trading strategy is to long Bitcoin while simultaneously shorting MicroStrategy Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This is an arbitrage strategy that takes advantage of the premium between its stock price and Bitcoin net value.
He criticizes companies like Strategy that use fundraising to purchase Bitcoin and then use "we own Bitcoin" as a reason to increase company valuation. He finds this approach absurd and points out that these companies are essentially selling "promises and dreams" to retail investors.
He states that the premium between Strategy's market price and net asset value (NAV) is an important indicator of market speculative sentiment. This premium narrowed during recent market volatility but has recently rebounded, indicating strong speculative sentiment.
He uses a "spread selling" operation (Short Spread Trade), which involves buying Bitcoin while shorting Strategy stock, to bet on the narrowing of the premium. This strategy does not predict Bitcoin's trend but focuses on arbitraging the price difference between the two, a method commonly used by hedge funds.
According to Strategy Tracker data, NAV Premium peaked at 3.4 in November last year and has since declined, currently standing at 1.86.
(MicroStrategy MSTR as a New Bitcoin Indicator, mNAV Premium Ratio and Tracking Website Introduction)
Chanos warns that many areas of the current market are still filled with irrationality and excessive optimism, and investors should be wary of "valuation by dreams". He still believes that short selling remains an effective risk hedging tool, especially in such an environment.
Risk Warning
Crypto investments carry high risks, with potentially significant price volatility. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
