On May 16, glassnode reported that Bitcoin short-term holders began taking profits. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit has surged to approximately 3 standard deviations above its 90-day average, reflecting a significant increase in profit-taking activities. However, in previous cycles, especially during price climbs towards all-time highs (ATH), this indicator often rises above 5 standard deviations. This suggests that typically, more intense profit-taking pressure is needed to overwhelm the continuous buying demand.
Bitcoin's rise near historical highs is primarily driven by the spot market, benefiting from strong on-chain accumulation and off-chain capital inflows. Demand mainly comes from spot ETFs and major spot trading platforms like Coinbase. A key cost support zone formed around $95,000, and the reduction in selling pressure further solidified this upward trend.
However, the derivatives market seems to be catching up, with open interest and funding rates not yet fully aligned with the spot market's upward momentum. Options market positions indicate a cautious but optimistic attitude, while the futures market currently shows almost no signs of excessive long leverage.
