If you are a professional baseball fan, when talking about the performance of our Fubon Warriors this year (2025), are you like me, with clenched fists and high blood pressure? As of May 16th, with 8 wins and 22 losses, the winning rate is merely 0.267, firmly sitting at the bottom of the six teams in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. Does this script sound familiar? The fans' helplessness and anger can be seen from the various criticisms of the head coach Chen Jin-feng on the internet, and even the "anti-cheering" behavior at the baseball field.
In this "blue melancholy", how do traditional Taiwan sports lotteries view this "dim light" team? Do emerging Web3 gambling platforms provide different perspectives or prospects for insightful players? This is not just a simple matter of wins and losses, but a game of information, risks, and opportunities behind the odds. This article will delve into how the Fubon Warriors' dismal performance is reflected in Taiwan sports lottery odds, and compare the potential odds differences and different gambling experiences on Web3 gambling platforms with more fluid information and diverse mechanisms.
The Blue Melancholy of the Warriors
The Fubon Warriors' "stable performance" in the 2025 season has indeed left a deep impression on fans. As of May 16, 2025, the team has only won 8 games but lost 22, with a winning rate as low as 0.267, ranking last in the league, with a 10.5-game difference from the top teams like Uni-President Lions and Dragons. Their recent performance is even more unbearable, winning only 2 out of the last 10 games and currently on a 1-game losing streak. Moreover, they recently suffered 7 consecutive home losses, creating the most disgraceful record in team history, no wonder fans jokingly call this "stable performance".
Numbers don't lie. Besides the dismal winning rate, the run difference is even more shocking. According to data, the Warriors scored 80 runs in 30 games this season but conceded 152 runs. Such offensive and defensive imbalance naturally reflects in their performance. The team's insufficient batting power or pitchers' lack of suppression could be reasons for this predicament. This continuous low performance not only destroys fans' confidence but has even led to the "comfortable text" phenomenon on PTT and other online communities, where fans sarcastically praise the opposing team, hoping to influence the game's mentality, indirectly reflecting their extreme frustration with their own team.
This long-term poor performance easily creates a "anchoring effect" in the gambling market. Due to the Warriors' continuous losses, the market's (including bookmakers and general players) expectations have been "anchored" at an extremely low level. Even if the team occasionally performs unexpectedly, such as winning an upset victory, it's difficult to reverse this deeply rooted negative impression in the short term. Gambling companies naturally consider this long-accumulated weak image when setting odds, directly affecting their betting market value.
Taiwan Sports Lottery Playing the 'Conservative Card' for Fubon Warriors' Odds
Facing the Fubon Warriors' "stable" bottom-ranking performance, Taiwan Sports Lottery gradually views them as a clearly weak team. Typically, the sports lottery would significantly lower the "single win" odds for the Warriors' opponents, while offering extremely high single win odds for the Warriors. However, such high odds often lack actual betting appeal due to the low winning probability. More commonly, the sports lottery would focus on the "point spread" market by offering the Warriors more points to balance betting enthusiasm.
Looking through Taiwan Sports Lottery's historical odds, interesting examples can be found. For instance, in a game on May 14th, Fubon Warriors were given a 1.5-point handicap with odds of 1.56. In another game, Fubon was also given a 1.5-point handicap, but with odds of 1.46.
More extremely, in a recent game against Brothers, the sports lottery rarely opened a "Fubon receiving 2.5 points with odds of 1.65", which fully reflects the bookmaker's high distrust of the Warriors. Even with such a significant point advantage, the odds were not particularly attractive, indicating the market generally believes the Warriors are not guaranteed to win even with a 2.5-point handicap. Sometimes, when the Warriors' opponents are strong, their single win odds might be as low as 1.43, while the Warriors' single win odds could be as high as 2.10, with the point spread odds (Fubon receiving 1.5 points) around 1.62.
It's worth noting that Taiwan Sports Lottery might sometimes not offer "single game betting" for matches with significant skill disparities, especially involving teams with long-term poor performance, but instead include them in "parlay combinations".
As the only legal sports gambling institution in Taiwan, the sports lottery's odds are not only based on team performance but may also include "protection" of the local market and a stronger risk-averse strategy. After all, part of the sports lottery's profits need to be injected into sports development funds, giving it a certain public welfare character that might differ from purely commercially-oriented international gambling platforms.
Betting Odds Imagination in Web3 Gaming
In recent years, with the rise of blockchain technology, Web3 gaming platforms have emerged like mushrooms after rain. They attract more and more players seeking novel experiences and better betting conditions with characteristics such as decentralization, high transparency, and global operations (note that they are still non-compliant in many countries). These platforms typically use cryptocurrencies for transactions, emphasize game fairness, and some even integrate innovative elements like Non-Fungible Tokens.
Honestly, it is currently not easy to find real-time, comprehensive odds data for the Fubon Guardians of the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) directly on mainstream Web3 gaming platforms. Such platforms usually prioritize global mainstream events like MLB, NBA, or major European football leagues. Nevertheless, some large Web3 platforms like BC.Game have already started offering Asian baseball leagues such as Japan's NPB and Korea's KBO, which also provides imagination space for future CPBL events. Assuming these platforms launch CPBL odds, the opening odds for the Fubon Guardians' recent schedule might be 1.04, while the opposing team's opening odds are usually between 1.6-1.7 (American odds).
So, why might Web3 platform odds differ from Taiwan's sports lottery? The main reasons could include the following: First, Web3 platforms typically have lower operating costs. Due to high automation and removal of many traditional gaming industry intermediary links, platforms have more space to offer more competitive odds, which players colloquially call "lower water" or "higher return rates".
Second, Web3 platforms target global users, possessing broader capital pools and more diverse player groups. This makes the betting tendencies of a single region or event relatively less influential on overall odds, with risks more dispersed, and odds settings potentially closer to pure statistical model predictions. Moreover, different Web3 platforms might adopt unique data analysis models and algorithms to set odds, striving to provide the most precise pricing in fierce market competition.
Although Chinese Professional Baseball League has less international attention compared to MLB or NPB, it still has a unique fan base and market potential in the Asian region. For Web3 gaming platforms seeking market diversification and emerging betting targets, incorporating CPBL into their event list and providing comprehensive betting odds is not impossible. Especially considering that some platforms have already begun exploring the Asian baseball market, CPBL's inclusion is just a matter of time.
Looking deeper, Web3 platform odds theoretically can approach "market efficiency" more closely. In a globalized, highly information-circulating competitive environment, odds will more quickly reflect all known public information (such as player injuries, weather, team recent conditions), more purely reflecting the objective probability of match outcomes and the odds competition between platforms to attract users.
In comparison, Taiwan's sports lottery odds formation, besides basic performance assessment, might need to incorporate more "market regulation" considerations, such as balancing local bettors' preferences, achieving public welfare goals, and more cautious risk management strategies. This leads to fundamental differences in the underlying mechanisms of odds formation between the two, rather than just the final numerical differences.
