This analysis uses indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, and historical data. Although historical data is a useful reference, its accuracy may decrease in the current environment, as participants like Strategy, Metaplanet, and ETF were not present in the 2021 cycle.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score is a metric for measuring market valuation, seeking to identify cyclical tops and bottoms by comparing the degree to which assets deviate from fair value when undervalued or overvalued. The chart shows the current MVRV Z-Score is around 2 to 3, in a neutral area, far from the overheated values seen at market tops. Historically, Bitcoin cycle peaks would push this indicator into the red zone (around 7 to 9), indicating an extreme disconnect between market cap and realized market cap. Currently, the indicator is slightly above 2, in the blue/yellow zone, suggesting Bitcoin is not overvalued.
As background information: In early 2021, before reaching around $60,000 to $65,000, this indicator exceeded 7. During the bear market in 2022, the indicator dropped below 0 (green zone), indicating an oversold market. From a technical perspective, there is still significant room for growth before the end of this cycle. Even if Bitcoin reaches around $100,000 to $110,000, it would not be considered "expensive" by MVRV standards. If Bitcoin repeats the structural pattern of previous tops, the MVRV Z-Score is expected to rise to 5 to 7 or higher.
This means there will be significant upside potential in the future market. The basic inference suggests that MVRV-based tops often occur when BTC is trading at prices far above $100,000 - possibly over $200,000, depending on changes in realized market cap over the next few months.
Energy Value Oscillator
This indicator measures Bitcoin's "fair value" based on total energy (energy value = hash rate × energy efficiency). The red-orange line in the chart marks the energy-based fair value - approximately $130,000 by mid-2025. The blue oscillating indicator below tracks the deviation of current price from this benchmark.
Historically, when Bitcoin trades far above its energy value, the oscillator enters the red zone (over 100% valuation). In early 2021, Bitcoin was around $60,000, trading over 100% above its energy value. Conversely, in 2022, Bitcoin traded below its energy value, with the oscillator in the green (undervalued) zone.
Currently, the oscillator is near zero, with Bitcoin (at $107,000 to $110,000) trading 10% to 20% below the model's calculated fair value. This indicates Bitcoin is not overheated. If the energy value reaches around $150,000 by late 2025 and trades at a 50% to 100% premium (common near cycle peaks), this would imply a price range between $225,000 and $300,000. In other words, the Energy Value Oscillator confirms Bitcoin still has ample room for growth. Until this oscillator breaks +100%, the market is unlikely to be considered "extremely overvalued" by this standard.
Bitcoin Heater (Derivatives Overheating Indicator)
The Bitcoin Heater indicator integrates derivatives sentiment (funding rates, basis, option skew) into a single index between 0 and 1. An indicator near 1.0 indicates a bubble, aggressive long positions, and high leverage. An indicator around 0.0 to 0.3 suggests market cooling or risk-averse sentiment. In previous cycles (especially in 2021), this indicator often broke through 0.8 before local adjustments. However, during strong bull markets (Q4 2020 to Q1 2021), the indicator remained high without immediately triggering a reversal. As of mid-2025, the indicator is around 0.6 to 0.7, in a warm state but not yet overheated.
This suggests the market has not yet entered the frenzied end of the cycle. In the final upward stage, this indicator may reach 0.8 to 1.0. Until then, the market still has room to rise. It is reasonable for this indicator to cyclically exceed 0.8 before topping, but the final peak will likely coincide with a sustained red zone indicator.
Macro Index Oscillator
This composite index uses over 40 fundamental, on-chain, and market indicators to assess Bitcoin's macro phase. An index above 0 indicates expansion; below 0 indicates contraction or recovery. In previous bull market cycles, this indicator transitioned from negative values to strong positive values - approaching peaks of 2 to 3 in 2021. It dropped below -1 when bottoming in 2022. Currently, the macro index is around +0.7 - clearly in a growth phase but still far from extreme heat.
This means the cycle may be in its mid-expansion stage. The indicator is expected to climb above 2.0 by the end of 2025. Bitcoin still has room to rise until core network activity stagnates or reverses. No signs of fatigue are currently apparent.
Volume Summer (Liquidity/Participation)
Volume Summer aggregates net buyer volume in spot and derivatives markets. An indicator above zero indicates net inflows; below zero suggests net outflows or decreased trading activity. In early 2021, the indicator surged to the bright green zone - a sign of retail FOMO and enthusiasm. In 2022, the indicator plummeted into the red zone, confirming massive fund withdrawals.
Currently, the Volume Summer indicator is moderately positive (around +75,000) - bullish, but far from frenzied. This means funds are returning, but the liquidity peak may still be ahead (Q4 2025?). If this indicator surges again into the deep green zone, a massive rally is expected. At current levels, liquidity provides support - but is far from its peak. More momentum remains to drive further increases.
Open Interest/Market Cap Ratio (OI/Mcap)
This indicator measures leverage relative to market cap. In 2021, the indicator hovered between 2% and 3%. In 2023, it surged to about 4%, setting the stage for mid-2024 adjustments. After a market crash, the indicator reset to 2%, clearing excess leverage.
By mid-2025, the indicator has rebounded to around 3.5%. This indicates leverage is rising again. While beneficial for short-term market rises (providing more momentum), it also increases risk. If the indicator rises above 4% - 5% by year-end, it may signal a crowded and unstable market prone to sell-offs. The final stage of this cycle may be characterized by record leverage rates, with the indicator hitting new highs at price peaks. However, there is still room for growth.
Possible Trend of BTC in December This Year
Combining all indicators, BTC is expected to be in the core stage of a bull market cycle, but not yet near its end. Currently, there are no signals of extreme overvaluation. Most indicators show strong growth, but are still below the historical cycle top levels. Therefore, the basic prediction is that BTC will reach between $210,000 to $230,000 by the end of 2025, which is more than double the current level. Based on these valuations, the following are expected:
· MVRV Z-Score > 7
· Energy Value Oscillator > +100%
· Bitcoin Heater around 1.0
· Volume Summer in the excitement interval
· OI/Mcap at historical extreme levels
Only then will this market possibly transition from the expansion phase to the distribution phase. Related reading: After Bitcoin's Historical High, What Will Drive the Subsequent Market?
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