Seeing that Pump.fun is raising $1 billion with a $4 billion valuation, it's a mixed feeling. It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform's valuation would surpass most DeFi blue-chip protocols. Is this sky-high valuation reasonable? Here are a few perspectives:
1) Overly Inflated Market Valuation Is Quite Unreasonable
From the data, Pump.fun is indeed the biggest beneficiary of this MEME super cycle, with monthly revenue peaks reaching tens of millions of dollars, which would be a phenomenal wealth creation effect even in traditional internet.
However, Pump.fun's attention economy is dependent on the short-term irrational FOMO of MEME coins. Plainly put, it's a traffic monetization driven by "gambling instincts". This means Pump.fun's business model's monetization capability is entirely a product of short-term market spotlight, rather than a sustainable normalized profit logic.
Based on this, is a $4B valuation reasonable? This pricing far exceeds most DeFi blue-chip protocols, and it's hard to imagine a platform mocked for harvesting users would crush blue-chip innovative protocols. Once the MEME craze subsides or the market returns to rationality, Pump.fun's revenue model will instantly collapse. What exactly is http://Pump.fun offering to the market at this moment when the MEME tide is cooling?
2) Fragile Business Moat Easily Overtaken
Pump.fun's success seems accidental but is actually inevitable, capturing Solana's high-performance and low-cost technical dividend, as well as the era's dividend of MEME culture moving from niche to mainstream.
But how deep is this "first-mover advantage"? Technically, similar launch platforms can be quickly replicated; operationally, MEME launch platforms are essentially a traffic business, and user migration costs are extremely low once the hotspot shifts or regulation tightens.
More critically, Pump.fun is highly dependent on the Solana ecosystem. Once significant changes occur in the Solana ecosystem, its business model's fragility will be fully exposed. This business model built on others' infrastructure is essentially a "dependent" business, and given its extreme unsustainability, how could it support a $4B independent valuation?
3) Launchpad's Tool-like Attributes Struggle to Create an Ecosystem
Currently, Pump.fun is just a "token launch tool" no matter how much money it's making, and to support a $4B market valuation, it would at least need a massive MEME economic ecosystem. Knowing it's impossible yet still attempting it, it's hard to imagine what the $1B financing is aiming for.
Little do they know, transforming from a pure Launchpad to a complex MEME economic ecosystem inherently contains a paradox: the core of MEME culture is precisely simplicity, directness, and viral spread. Excessive functional layering will only make the platform lose its original "wildness".
In fact, balancing the MEME's "short, fast, and quick" characteristics with the platform's long-term value accumulation is challenging. Products trying to evolve from tools to platforms often lose themselves while pursuing "comprehensive" development, ultimately becoming neither fish nor fowl. With $1 billion, Pump.fun is likely walking towards such a fate.
4) Extremely High Valuation Will Subvert the Original Value Innovation System
Pump.fun's ultra-high valuation is sending a dangerous signal to the entire industry: in the current Crypto ecosystem, "traffic aggregation + speculative realization" might be more valuable than "technological innovation + infrastructure". When creating a gambling platform is more profitable than promoting technological innovation, who would still gnaw on the hard bone of infrastructure? It's hard to imagine what catastrophic industry chain reaction this new value orientation would produce.
On one hand, more capital and talent will flood into MEME-related infrastructure construction; on the other hand, it might also intensify the industry's "entertainment" trend, marginalizing genuine technological innovation.
Overall, Pump.fun's token issuance is both a sign of MEME economy's maturation and potentially a signal of the industry's value system's collapse.
The key is whether it can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining massive capital. Otherwise, this abnormal valuation will bring tremendous innovation disaster to the entire industry, foretelling a more utilitarian, short-sighted Crypto future that is far from the technical geek's original essence.
