Dogecoin [DOGE] is quietly repeating its past strategy.
Although the price is still far from its 2021 high and has dropped about 30% compared to a month ago, the overall situation looks familiar.
In the 2016-17 and 2020-21 cycles, DOGE consolidated for about a year before starting a significant surge.
We're talking about 5,000% in 2017 and an astonishing 21,000% in 2021. It hasn't achieved that yet, but the setup feels similar.
Surged 287%, then went silent—but this silence says a lot
DOGE closed at $0.31 in 2024, with an annual increase of 287%, re-entering the top ten crypto assets.
This move has reignited retail speculative behavior and triggered a new round of "fear of missing out" (FOMO)—albeit subtly.
DOGE has not chased parabolic highs—at least not yet.
What it has done is hold its ground. Its resilience is outstanding, especially for a meme coin, even after experiencing a 30% drop and a challenging macro environment.
According to AMBCrypto, this could be a sign of strategic accumulation beneath the surface, indicating that bulls might be plotting a familiar breakout structure.
DOGE might drop, but it's not out
A month ago, Dogecoin's open interest was hovering around $3 billion. As of this writing, it has dropped to $1.74 billion.
Interestingly, this move coincides with DOGE breaking below the key $0.20 support level.
However, if spot demand re-enters these levels, it could mark a typical "healthy" reset following significant liquidity tightening due to aggressive deleveraging and macro volatility.
Moreover, Dogecoin's 30-day exchange supply change turned negative in early June, suggesting continuous outflows from major exchanges.
In context, ongoing net outflows from exchanges indicate supply is moving off-platform, hinting at strategic accumulation and potential bullish intent.
Meanwhile, active addresses have rebounded from below 80,000 in mid-June to 118,000 this week, marking a sharp revival in on-chain transactions.
Overall, Dogecoin's 30% monthly drop looks less like surrender and more like a strategic accumulation window. The spot market may be preparing to absorb funds lost from the derivatives market.
Is the narrative repeating?
If DOGE continues to maintain key support levels while maintaining low speculative pressure and accumulation by retail and whales, the possibility of a breakthrough pattern similar to previous structures doesn't seem far-fetched.
