According to Foresight News, QCP Capital's latest market observation indicates that risk appetite is making a significant comeback. Despite the ongoing unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Israel resuming air strikes, the market has already viewed this conflict as a normal background, with safe-haven assets becoming increasingly less responsive. US tech stocks are leading the way, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a historic high and the S&P 500 approaching pre-pandemic levels. Falling energy prices back to pre-conflict levels are injecting additional momentum into risk assets.
In the crypto space, Coinbase's stock surged 12% in a single day, reaching a six-month high. Two key regulatory developments drove this: first, the US passed the GENIUS Act, introducing a stablecoin regulatory framework that provides legal guarantees for institutional entry; second, Coinbase received approval from Luxembourg's financial regulator, becoming the first large US exchange licensed under the EU's MiCA framework.
Simultaneously, institutional Bitcoin allocation is significantly accelerating. Data shows that the number of companies holding Bitcoin has doubled to over 240 since June, collectively controlling 3.45 million BTC. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could not only rival gold's hedging status but potentially even surpass it in market capitalization.
However, QCP warns of the need to continuously monitor tensions between NATO and Russia. European defense agencies caution that the likelihood of military conflict "within 5 years" is increasing, with concerns about Russia's military production capacity and nuclear facility modernization. Multiple NATO countries are considering raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, and Trump is set to attend an upcoming NATO summit, with his stance potentially influencing the military alliance's coordination.
QCP concludes that the risk pricing logic is changing: safe-haven assets are no longer just hedging tools but a new baseline pricing norm for the market. Under the intersection of inflation, interest rates, and the arms race, investors need to adjust their strategies to address structural volatility.
