On June 25, according to The Block, digital asset brokerage and research company K33 stated that there is a high correlation between Bitcoin ETF fund inflows and price returns, which is in stark contrast to some companies that incorporate Bitcoin into their financial reserves, whose purchasing behavior often has a neutral market impact. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde noted in Tuesday's report that some analysts are beginning to question whether ETF fund flows can still influence prices. However, the latest data shows that Bitcoin prices remain closely correlated with ETF inflows, with an R² value as high as 0.80, explaining about 80% of Bitcoin return fluctuations over the past 30 days.
In comparison, the impact of Bitcoin treasury companies on prices is more complex. Lunde pointed out that the latest data shows a weaker correlation between corporate Bitcoin purchases and market returns. Although companies like Strategy continue to directly purchase Bitcoin from the market through debt or equity financing, influencing market demand, many new entrants have adopted different approaches.
In just the past three months, over 50 new treasury reserve projects have been launched, many of which obtained Bitcoin through "in-kind share swaps" with large token holders. For example, SoftBank-backed Twenty One established its position of 37,230 BTC through share exchanges with Tether and Bitfinex. Such "in-kind exchange" structures hardly create new net buying demand for the Bitcoin market and may even divert direct purchase funds that could have entered the market.
