Pantera Capital: Why did we invest in Worldcoin?

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MarsBit
06-27
This article is machine translated
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Here's the English translation: We have been researching how blockchain can integrate into a world where AI is rapidly proliferating, with "Proof-of-human" being a prominent field. In a future where AI agents and AI-generated content are increasingly prevalent, distinguishing between humans and robots will become an urgent necessity. In many scenarios, we might accept or even prefer interacting with robots. However, in critical areas like advertising, dating, or government services, authenticating unique human identities becomes especially important. Using permissionless blockchain to verify online "humanness" in a global and censorship-resistant manner is undoubtedly one of the best options. Worldcoin is a blockchain protocol that builds a privacy-preserving global identity and financial network through the "Proof-of-human" concept. "Proof-of-human" means proving that an individual is both human and unique. Worldcoin verifies users as unique humans through iris scanning with its "World Orb" biometric device and issues a World ID for each user on its Worldchain. Developed by Tools For Humanity (TFH), this technology is being promoted globally. The protocol's native token WLD is designed as a global internet currency and used for protocol governance. OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is also a co-founder of Worldcoin. He established Worldcoin to maintain human uniqueness and centrality in an internet world driven by AI-generated content. If widely adopted, Worldcoin will provide a scalable and reliable global solution for distinguishing humans from AI while protecting user privacy. This capability has far-reaching implications, not only expanding economic opportunities but also promoting global democratic processes. [The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original text's meaning and tone.]

We believe that the launch in the United States this year is a critical growth unlock. Worldcoin announced its launch in the United States in May, initially covering six cities (Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, and San Francisco). Worldcoin plans to deploy 7,500 Orb devices in the United States by the end of 2025. They also anticipate providing Worldcoin devices in high-density shopping areas nationwide through marketing campaigns with retail partners.

Worldcoin's goal is to verify 50 million people by the end of this year, with a long-term vision of signing up each unique human. You can find nearby scanning locations here.

Additionally, Worldcoin recently launched its first commercial advertisement in the United States, called "Human and You Know It". You can view the advertisement.

Government Relations

Many still believe that Worldcoin circumvents privacy laws and government regulations, but the opposite is true. This misunderstanding stems from past regulatory actions. Cautious government regulators have challenged Worldcoin's expansion, requesting a pause in operations in certain regions, such as Hong Kong, Kenya, Spain, and Portugal.

In recent years, the regulatory attitude has changed positively. This shift is attributed to multiple factors, including TFH (The Foundation for Humanity) strengthening education and communication with local governments, and the accelerated proliferation of artificial intelligence, which has made various sectors recognize the need to learn and adapt to new global paradigms with an open mind.

Recently, Worldcoin has made significant progress in collaborating with local governments, particularly in rapidly digitalizing Southeast Asian markets like Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Before entering these markets, Worldcoin actively engaged with government officials to ensure they fully understand the platform's technology and its embedded privacy protection measures. To meet data privacy and storage regulatory requirements, Worldcoin has assembled a top-tier legal and public policy team.

A successful example is Worldcoin's collaboration with MyEG, a Malaysian government service provider. MyEG offers offline services such as driving license exams, identity card applications, and renewals. By partnering with MyEG, Orb verification services have been integrated into their existing government infrastructure, demonstrating Worldcoin's ability to embed technology into government services and setting a precedent for future similar collaborations.

Commercialization and Potential Growth

In the event called "At Last", Worldcoin began to preliminarily elaborate on its plans for World ID commercialization. At the most basic level, revenue sources include transaction fees on World Chain. Additionally, World ID service fees have been introduced, which will be charged to applications using World ID services. The fees are divided into two parts: Credential Fees, retained by credential issuers; and Protocol Fees, belonging to World ID. As foundational investors, we are excited about Worldcoin's announced value accumulation plan, as it indicates that the World protocol successfully creates excess value for its stakeholders.

Through reasonable assumptions, a compelling investment case can be constructed. If Worldcoin can verify 5 billion unique users (approximately 60% of the global population) and each verified user generates $5 in revenue annually, the protocol would achieve $25 billion in annual revenue. This $5 is less than 0.005% of the global per capita GDP, which is reasonable considering the widespread application of Worldcoin technology in massive markets like advertising.

Under a reasonable growth multiple, this $25 billion in annual revenue, combined with nearly 100% free cash flow conversion, could potentially drive a market value exceeding $250 billion. These figures demonstrate the global commercialization potential and future massive market value of World ID.

Conclusion

We are confident in the development that the Worldcoin team is advancing. The protocol uniquely addresses the critical challenge of verifying unique human identities in the rapidly evolving era of artificial intelligence. This opportunity is particularly timely, accompanied by the government's changing attitude towards digital identity, Worldcoin's recent entry into the U.S. market, and the increasingly widespread application of World ID in different regions and diverse scenarios.

Of course, there is still a long way to go from the current state to realizing Worldcoin's long-term vision. Questions about whether the protocol can scale quickly enough, the effectiveness of its growth incentive mechanisms, and the reflexive impact of its volatile cryptocurrency remain worth pondering. Moreover, Worldcoin is not the only institution aware of the key foundation of "human identity" - most large tech companies are developing their own identity solutions. Although decentralized and censorship-resistant solutions are theoretically superior, this does not mean they will necessarily prevail in practice.

With the proliferation of artificial intelligence, people are increasingly recognizing the importance of Worldcoin's mission to build a powerful and secure identity verification solution. The Wall Street Journal and Time magazine have featured Worldcoin in special reports over the past few months, emphasizing its crucial role in the context of increasingly prevalent and difficult-to-distinguish AI agents, especially in payment and social network domains. Blackrock reiterated the strategic importance of "human identity verification" in its annual shareholder letter, particularly in the context of growing on-chain economy and asset tokenization.

Although Worldcoin's development is still in its early stages, there is no doubt that this is an excellent management team led by Sam Altman as board chairman. If successful, its "Big Hairy Audacious Goal" (BHAG) will bring order-of-magnitude growth potential. Looking forward, we anticipate Worldcoin's continued progress in geographical expansion, strategic partnerships, and the robust growth of its Mini App ecosystem. As investors in this protocol, we feel incredibly excited and honored.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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