Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Blockchain
Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the US May core PCE was higher than expected, and Powell stated in the hearing that he would consider rate actions after waiting; this week, focus can be placed on the US June non-farm employment data report and the progress of the Big Beautiful bill.
Last Week Review
Key Events & Indicators This Week
June 30
July 01
July 02
July 03
July 04
Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the US May core PCE was higher than expected, and Powell stated in the hearing that he would consider rate actions after waiting; this week, focus can be placed on the US June non-farm employment data report and the progress of the Big Beautiful bill.
Last Week Review
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's written testimony to Congress stated that recent economic activity has been robust, allowing policymakers to continue monitoring inflation and employment data to determine whether and when to resume rate cuts. Powell emphasized that the Fed will ensure that price impacts from tariff increases do not evolve into a "persistent inflation problem". He did not explicitly hint at a July rate cut.
- Powell's congressional testimony: The Federal Reserve is currently in a favorable position to wait patiently and consider adjusting monetary policy stance after gaining a clearer understanding of economic trends. This year's tariff increases may drive up prices and put pressure on economic activity.
- US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate final value was 3.5%, expected 3.4%, previous value 3.40%.
- US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value was -0.5%, expected -0.20%, previous value -0.20%.
- Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos wrote that Trump is frustrated with the Fed's slow action on rate cuts, which has prompted him to consider announcing Powell's replacement in advance, despite Powell having 11 months left in his term. However, the earlier he announces a candidate, the more likely that person will become a target and less likely to truly succeed Powell.
- The US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025. The US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate was 0.2%, expected 0.1%.
- US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 were 236,000, previous 246,000, expected 245,000.
- US June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value was 60.7, expected 60.5, previous 60.5.
Key Events & Indicators This Week
June 30
- China's June Official Manufacturing PMI (09:30)
- ECB Central Bank Forum in Sintra, until July 2
July 01
- US June ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
July 02
- US June ADP Employment (20:15)
July 03
- US June Unemployment Rate (20:30)
- US June Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment (20:30)
- US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 28 (20:30)
- ECB Publishes June Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (19:30)
July 04
- Trump's deadline for the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill
