BTC Price Prediction: Can it break the $200,000 mark?

• Technical Analysis: Price stabilized above the 20-day moving average, but MACD indicates short-term overbought conditions
• Policy Aspect: US tax reform bill increases market volatility
• Supply and Demand: Potential decline in miner profitability may affect future supply

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Current Trend and Future Outlook

Based on current data, BTC price is 108,637.12 USDT, slightly above the 20-day moving average of 105,785.40, indicating short-term upward momentum. The MACD indicator shows a negative value (-422.99), suggesting a potential short-term correction. The Bollinger Bands show the price is near the upper band (109,750.63), which could lead to further upside if broken, otherwise it may retrace to the middle or lower band (101,820.17). BTCC analyst Mia notes that if BTC can maintain the 20-day moving average, the medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Market Sentiment and BTC Price Influencing Factors

Recent news reveals complex market sentiment: a whale exited too early, missing out on $2.5 million in profits, reflecting a conservative attitude among some investors. The US Senate's push for tax reform increases market uncertainty and reduces retail demand. Despite BTC's strong price, miner profitability has reached a 12-year low, potentially impacting long-term supply. Positive news like Vanadi Coffee adopting BTC payments partially offsets negative impacts. BTCC analyst Mia believes policy uncertainty will suppress prices short-term, but increased institutional adoption remains a long-term positive.

Factors Affecting BTC Price

Whale Exits Early, Misses $2.5 Million in Bitcoin Profits

Renowned crypto trader AguilaTrades exited his Bitcoin long position too early in morning trading, forgoing over $2.5 million in potential gains. Lookonchain on-chain data shows the whale only realized $168,000 in profits—had he maintained his position, his unrealized profit could have approached $2.68 million.

This event highlights the volatility and psychological challenges of the crypto market, where timing decisions can dramatically alter trading outcomes.

US Senate Advances Trump Tax Reform Bill, Increasing Market Uncertainty and Reducing Crypto Retail Demand

The US Senate cleared procedural hurdles for Trump's tax reform bill with a 51-49 vote, suggesting the bill may pass in the coming days. Market sentiment remains cautious, with political and economic crosscurrents emerging.

According to Newsweek's poll, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to a historic low of 43%, with a net disapproval of -10%. This decline follows controversial tariff announcements and White House policy shifts that have reignited public dissatisfaction.

Despite presidential criticism, the Bank for International Settlements downplayed concerns about the Fed's independence but warned that growing protectionism and trade fragmentation pose significant economic risks.

The crypto market faces headwinds, with CryptoQuant data showing monthly retail Bitcoin demand below $30 declining by 10%, reaching a six-month low. Meanwhile, the Resupply Agreement team has proposed emergency remedies for this week's technical issues.

Bitcoin Miners Face Lowest Profitability in 12 Years, Despite Strong BTC Price

Bitcoin miners are experiencing their most challenging profitability cycle since 2012. Despite BTC trading near $107,000, network transaction fees have hit historic lows. The Puell Multiple index shows a 1.2 reading, indicating miner revenues are only 20% above the long-term average—far from previous bull market conditions.

Three structural pressures converge: transaction fees have plummeted to 2012 levels due to reduced on-chain activity; hash rate fluctuations reflect miner uncertainty; and delayed difficulty adjustments further compress profit margins. Notably, large mining farms are shutting down ASIC miners due to persistently declining revenues.

Unusually, miners are refusing large-scale position liquidations. This discipline might suggest complex hedging strategies or a firm belief in imminent price increases—a bullish signal hidden within bearish fundamentals.

Vanadi Coffee Turns to Bitcoin, Aims to Become Spain's Largest Public BTC Holder

Vanadi Coffee S.A. has received shareholder approval for a significant strategic shift, adopting Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset. This move marks a clear transition from traditional coffee business and demonstrates ambitions to become Spain's leading listed Bitcoin holder.

The company currently holds 54 Bitcoins via Bit2Me custody, with an average purchase price of €93,444. This reserve strategy could allocate up to €1 billion to Bitcoin investments, creating a rare institutional-grade Bitcoin investment vehicle in the Spanish market.

Shareholders approved the transformation in a recent meeting, authorizing the cumulative strategy and necessary financing arrangements. The announcement was officially submitted to BME-Growth on June 29, marking the company's significant pivot into digital assets.

Trump Fiscal Policy Triggers Market Warnings, Bitcoin Rebounds

Bitcoin price stabilized between $107,000 and $108,500, showing resilience amid US fiscal uncertainty. At press time, BTC traded at $108,385, with altcoins following the upward momentum. This market movement coincides with renewed debate over Trump-era tax policies.

Former President Trump's recent social media comments about Republican disagreements over a $3.8 trillion budget proposal have reignited fiscal concerns. The proposal aims to extend 2017 tax cuts while cutting social welfare programs, causing divisions between moderate and conservative party members. Investors appear to be hedging political risks through crypto exposure.

The budget proposal contains several controversial measures: canceling tip taxes and specific loan taxes, expanding child tax credits, and increasing military spending. These tax cuts need to be offset by significantly cutting medical assistance and food aid programs. Such austerity policies typically drive funds towards non-correlated assets like Bitcoin during fiscally unstable periods.

Trader AguilaTrades Closes BTC Long Position, Profits $160,000

AguilaTrades has exited its leveraged Bitcoin position, locking in a $160,000 profit. This 20x long trade demonstrates that despite recent price volatility, opportunities for volatile trading continue to exist in the crypto market.

On-chain data shows professional traders continue to profit from Bitcoin price trends, although the specific exchange used for this trade was not detailed. Such profit-taking operations often signal the beginning of a new accumulation phase.

Will BTC Price Reach $200,000?

Combining technical and fundamental analysis, BTCC analyst Mia offers the following insights:

Short-term (1-3 months) suppressed by policy uncertainty, may test $100,000 support; medium-term (6-12 months), if breaking $120,000 resistance, could challenge $200,000 target. Conditions include: 1) Clear US crypto regulatory framework 2) 30%+ growth in institutional holdings 3) Comprehensive Bitcoin ETF approval.