Author: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Original Title: Which Crypto ETFs Might Be Approved in 2025?
After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024, and trading began on January 11, 2024, various ETF applications have emerged, covering both mainstream and other cryptocurrencies. This article will review which crypto ETFs have been submitted this year, their probability of approval, and their potential impact on the crypto market.
I. Crypto ETFs Submitted This Year
SOL, 99%
On June 28, REX Shares announced on X platform that the Solana staking ETF "REX-OspreySOL+StakingETF" is coming soon, reportedly tracking Solana's performance while generating income through on-chain staking. It is claimed to be the first staking crypto ETF in the U.S. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed on X that the SEC has no further comments, suggesting they are ready to launch.
Previously, multiple institutions submitted SOL spot ETF applications for late 2024 to early 2025. Sosovalue analyst noted that the SEC accepted Grayscale Solana Trust's SOL spot ETF 19b-4 form on February 12, with the latest approval date potentially set for October 10, 2025, based on the Bitcoin spot ETF approval precedent.
On June 26, investment management company Invesco Ltd and crypto-focused Galaxy Digital LP joined the Solana ETF competition. Their subsidiaries submitted a registration statement to the SEC for the "Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF". If approved, the fund will trade on Cboe BZX with the ticker "QSOL". Invesco Capital Management LLC will be the sponsor, Bank of New York Mellon will manage, and Galaxy will be responsible for token acquisition. Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC will serve as the SOL custodian. The SEC recently requested Solana ETF issuers update their S-1 files, indicating potential imminent approval.
Polymarket platform predicts a 99% probability of approval this year.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms and names.]On April 29, Nasdaq filed the 19b-4 form with the SEC for 21Shares' DOGE ETF application.
On April 30, the SEC decided to postpone the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF application until June 15, 2025.
On June 26, Bitwise Asset Management submitted a revised S-1 file for the DOGE ETF to the SEC, for the first time allowing "in-kind" creation and redemption, which keeps the ETF's operating model consistent with the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already approved by the SEC.
Polymarket platform predicts a 75% probability of LTC ETF approval this year.
ADA, 90%
In February this year, Grayscale submitted the world's first spot ADA ETF application to the SEC.
On March 12, the SEC postponed the approval of Grayscale's spot ADA ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a prediction that the ADA ETF has a 90% chance of approval this year.
HBAR, 90%
On November 13, 2024, Canary submitted the HBAR ETF application.
On February 22, Canary submitted a revised S-1 file for its HBAR ETF to the US SEC.
On June 11, the SEC postponed the decision on the Hedera ETF application submitted by Canary Capital.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 90% chance of HBAR ETF approval this year.
TRX ETF, probability unknown
In April 2025, Canary Capital Group officially submitted a spot TRX ETF application to the SEC.
On May 24, Justin Sun revealed in an interview after the Trump crypto dinner that the application has been approved by the SEC, marking a significant breakthrough in TRON's compliance process. The application was submitted by the Chicago Stock Exchange and is currently under review.
NEAR, probability unknown
On April 25, Bitwise registered a NEAR ETF in Delaware.
On May 6, Bitwise's registration statement showed that the ETF will track the price of NEAR tokens through traditional brokers and deduct fees. Bitwise designated Coinbase Custody as the custodian for the Bitwise NEAR ETF. The management fees, stock ticker, and listing exchange for the Bitwise NEAR ETF are yet to be determined.
TRUMP, probability unknown
On January 21, Rex applied to launch a TRUMP ETF.
APT, probability unknown
On February 25, Bitwise filed documents for the Aptos ETF trust in Delaware, and on March 5, submitted the corresponding S-1 file to the SEC.
On June 26, Bitwise submitted a revised S-1 form to the US SEC for spot DOGE and Aptos ETFs.
AXL, probability unknown
On March 6, Canary Capital submitted an S-1 application file for its AXL ETF.
II. Will Numerous Crypto ETF Applications Bring a "Altcoin Season"?
Cryptocurrency ETF applications often trigger investor expectations for their approval. Once the market believes a certain cryptocurrency ETF might pass, investors tend to buy that cryptocurrency, thereby driving up the market.
After an ETF is approved, it will attract more investors, helping to increase trading volume in the entire crypto market and enhance liquidity.
Currently, there are voices suggesting that the SEC's upcoming approval of some cryptocurrency ETFs will kick off a "Altcoin ETF Summer".
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted: "Get ready for a potential Altcoin ETF Summer, with Solana likely leading the way."
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the Altcoin market has not actually started yet: "The largest bull market in crypto history is about to arrive, as market expansion after such a long bear market will exceed any previous cycle."
