Author: 0xJeff
Translated by: Tim, PANews
Original Title: From Fair Launch to Attention Capital Market, Web3 AI Primary Market Undergoes Major Transformation
In just one quarter, the Web3 AI field has directly shifted from the fair launch model (Virtuals) to a medium-scale, medium FDV strategy (i.e., the attention capital market).
Some Virtuals ecosystem projects and CreatorBid launch projects performed exceptionally well initially, but product attractiveness gradually weakened over time. This decline rate is proportional to the project scale, team launch timing, and the amount of funds raised for product R&D.
Based on previous shared content, the core challenge faced by fair launch teams is the general lack of funding support before token issuance. Most teams cannot afford the cost of self-funded development guidance, with the fair launch model primarily using token transaction fees as the main income source to drive project operations.
This does not solve the cold start problem; in reality, it is often one or two independent developers collaborating to launch a project, develop a roadmap, release a demo version to spark community enthusiasm, and then issue tokens. The token price is hyped up until the bubble bursts, and the development momentum comes to an abrupt end.
The only viable approach is for developers to self-fund product launch, gradually recruit team members, and ultimately release a minimum viable product (MVP).
The current market shows two significant trends: the continuous decline in fair launch model attractiveness coupled with insufficient high-quality AI product supply is causing funds and market attention to shift. Teams with FDV between $40-80 million who have been quietly refining their products for 1-2 years are benefiting. These teams have optimized their products to an almost scalable mature stage.
Many have spent months testing products, conducting interviews, gathering feedback, and iterating improvements.
This trend is intensified by the rise of the attention capital market. The transformation happening in the InfoFi field is converting noise into signals through capital commitment. Airdrop Hunters have proven through actions that they are not just here for "Airdrop Hunting" but have genuine beliefs in their expressed views.
A good team consensus has formed, and we will soon see clearer data indicators distinguishing those who are just hunting airdrops and cashing out from those truly believing in and supporting the project and team with real money.
We are now witnessing the intense chemical reaction between Kaito and Cookie's first launches.
Theoriq vs Almanak
Theoriq's initial FDV was set at $75 million (50% discount from the previous venture capital valuation), with token release rules: 25% unlocked at TGE + 37.5% unlocked after 1 year + remaining portion linearly released over the subsequent year.
Almanak's FDV is $90 million, 100% unlocked. The top 25 Almanak users can invest at a $75 million FDV.
Theoriq's token terms are quite favorable (50% discount from the previous venture capital pricing), and the project team has adjusted the token attribution plan to 100% unlocked at TGE based on community feedback about improving token generation event unlock conditions.
Now, both projects have FDVs of $75 million or $90 million. They have a high probability of performing well because these are Kaito and Cookie's debut projects (they need to boost token prices to attract more quality teams).
The products being developed by both teams have substantial value in the DeFi field, including scalable infrastructure and various applications, aimed at attracting more users and funds on-chain.
Which project should I invest in? And why?
I'm investing in both projects. I've already invested in Almanak's Legion round and will add more in this ACM round.
Almanak's product is more thoroughly prepared and is likely to achieve product-market fit earlier than Theoriq.
Theoriq shows extraordinary strategic ambition, with the team building vertical domain workflows for specific customers, continuously enhancing the AlphaSwarm function system, and demonstrating technical efficiency through the infrastructure layer. Its ultimate goal is to become the preferred service discovery platform (or "app store") for meta-intelligence agent scheduling systems, achieving intelligent matching of the best agent clusters based on user needs.
Almanak will focus on an AI vault system with secure, controllable, transparent, and verifiable characteristics: designed for institutional capital needs on one hand, and on the other, combining smart contracts with professional program agents, with the most convenient interface experience to help creators expand and optimize more vault strategies.
The key to the projects' short-term performance truly depends on GTM execution at launch, market maker management, and the ability to effectively digest selling pressure in the initial listing period.
Overall, based on project launch performance, we may witness KAITO and COOKIE entering a new positive appreciation trend (value derived from direct percentage airdrop earnings and increased allocation for stakers).
I am very excited and look forward to seeing more AI teams launching their new projects on Kaito and Cookie soon.
