Author: Kevin Li
Translated by: TechFlow
Our analyst Kevin Li estimates Coinbase's second-quarter revenue at $1.495 billion, a 6.2% decrease from Wall Street's estimate of $1.594 billion.
July 31 Earnings Update:
Author's Estimated Value: $1.495 billion (-$2 million)
Wall Street Expectation: $1.594 billion (+$97 million)
Actual Value: $1.497 billion
Key Points:
Real-time Revenue Prediction Using On-chain Data: We estimate Coinbase's second-quarter revenue at $1.495 billion, lower than Wall Street's expectation of $1.594 billion, based on publicly available blockchain data.
Trading Revenue Remains Dominant Despite Market Downturn: Trading revenue is expected to reach $710 million, still Coinbase's largest revenue source, but institutional and retail trading volumes declined in the second quarter as the Memecoin market gradually cooled.
Explosive Stablecoin Growth Drives Revenue: USDC supply grew by 36.7% to $60 billion, with stablecoin revenue surging to an estimated $396 million, becoming the second-largest revenue contributor.
Layer 2 and Interest Income Provide Significant Boost: The Base network is expected to generate $57.82 million, including on-chain fees and speculative non-fee income; blockchain rewards (primarily ETH staking) contributed $159 million; interest income and subscription services brought in $72 million and $117 million respectively.
One of the core advantages of cryptocurrency/blockchain is its transparency, which enables real-time revenue estimation for blockchain-related businesses.
In traditional finance (TradFi), analysts cannot anticipate a company's quarterly performance in advance, unless the company is related to consumer spending, in which case credit card panel data can be used for analysis. However, in the crypto realm, everything is recorded on-chain and publicly verifiable. This allows anyone to analyze blockchain data and predict a company's fundamentals in real-time. In this article, we will detail how to use on-chain activity to predict Coinbase's revenue.
Coinbase's revenue is divided into several main parts:
Trading Revenue
Base Network Revenue
Blockchain Rewards Revenue
Stablecoin Revenue
Other and Subscription Revenue
Interest Income
The author of this article and affiliated companies of Artemis Analytics may have economic interests in the mentioned protocols or tokens. This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any assets. The information provided is for reference only and should not be used as a basis for financial, legal, or tax decisions. Readers should assess their own circumstances before making any financial choices. The views expressed in this article may change at any time without notice, and Artemis Analytics is not responsible for any losses caused by the use of this content.
