BTC's 100-day cycle ended on July 18th, and looking at the past half month, it still had some effect. In fact, the Nasdaq index over the past 10+ years also has a similar 1000-day cycle effect (Figure 3), of course, with a longer base, it becomes more blurry and rough, but still has some reference value. If the cycle starting point is taken between October 2022 and January 2023, then it will reach 1000 days between August and October 2025. Because of this observation, I have temporarily stopped dollar-cost averaging in US stocks over the past month, keeping some "bullets" to see if there will be better investment opportunities in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.

This is your one and only comment on twitter on a new account Smells like farm

Let’s talk about Netflix?

Netflix is indeed my primary US stock investment. My current view is: If we compare the future AIGC boom to Netflix to the DeFi boom to crypto (Uniswap, the DeFi icon, was launched in 2018 and gained widespread market attention in 2020), ICO → DeFi: "Issuing a large number of coins → Exploding programmability of coins" Movies and TV series → AIGC TV series: "Issuing a large number of TV series → Exploding programmability of TV series" Then Netflix could be where crypto was in 2017-2018. That is, before AIGC TV series gain widespread market attention, it could still offer a golden opportunity. Therefore, I used about 30% of my planned investment in Netflix, leaving at least half of my investment for this potential golden opportunity.

Then can we also consider the calculation of Tencent Video in Tencent?

This involves a larger topic, that is, in addition to the perspective of technological development in the science and technology field, we must also consider the content field, or more specifically the perspective of the entertainment field. If you want to answer this question with high emotional intelligence, you can just do what Jensen Huang demonstrated in the video below 🤣 His answer seems to be applicable to "innovative products" such as short plays. There's a consensus that China's lagging behind in fields like AI and GPUs is largely due to the censorship restrictions imposed by the State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television, including the fact that games were once considered electronic heroin. It's worth noting that without the computer gaming landscape of 20 years ago, Nvidia wouldn't be where it is today. Even the OpenAI project originally began with gaming. Allowing open play is crucial; those who are most adept at playing always take the lead. The ratings system in foreign content fields is also designed to allow adults to enjoy their content to the fullest. I have heard a point of view, if I remember correctly, it seems that it was said by Uncle Tongdao in the early years (the well-known Web2 entrepreneur who sold the Peiwo app to Justin Sun). The general idea is to describe a paradox in the domestic content sector: content needs to be allowed to "go beyond the norm" in order to attract viewers and foster innovation, creating a positive cycle between the two. However, domestic content creators can only cautiously test the waters on the edge, dancing with shackles on their feet.

Oh, that's very well said. The restrictions are indeed quite different. Think about the restrictions in China, and even the suppression of audience aesthetics under those restrictions. The potential for growth is indeed incomparable.