8 月 6 日，据官网信息，Polymarket 上 2028 年美总统大选获胜概率如下：
现任副总统、共和党候选人 JD Vance 以 28% 排名第一；
民主党候选人 Gavin Newsom 以 13% 排名第二。其余候选人当前胜率均未突破 10%。
美国总统特朗普于昨晚 20:00 在 CNBC 财经论谈「Squawk Box」节目接受采访时表示，现任副总统万斯「最有可能」成为其「让美国再次伟大」（MAGA）运动的继承人。

<div><p>8 月 6 日，据官网信息，Polymarket 上 2028 年美总统大选获胜概率如下：</p><p>现任副总统、共和党候选人 JD Vance 以 28% 排名第一；</p><p>民主党候选人 Gavin Newsom 以 13% 排名第二。其余候选人当前胜率均未突破 10%。</p><p>美国总统特朗普于昨晚 20:00 在 CNBC 财经论谈「Squawk Box」节目接受采访时表示，现任副总统万斯「最有可能」成为其「让美国再次伟大」（MAGA）运动的继承人。</p></div>

Polymarket上2028年美总统大选获胜概率JD Vance以28%排名第一

On August 6th, according to official website information, the probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election on Polymarket is as follows:

Current Vice President and Republican candidate JD Vance ranks first with 28%;
Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom ranks second with 13%. Other candidates currently have win rates below 10%.

Former US President Trump stated during an interview on the CNBC financial talk show "Squawk Box" last night at 20:00 that current Vice President Vance is "most likely" to become the heir to his <MAGA> movement.

<div><p>On August 6, according to official website information, the probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election on Polymarket is as follows:</p><p>Current Vice President and Republican candidate JD Vance ranks first with 28%;</p><p>Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom ranks second with 13%. Other candidates currently have not exceeded 10% chance of winning.</p><p>Former US President Trump stated during an interview on the CNBC financial talk show "Squawk Box" last night at 20:00 that the current Vice President Vance is "most likely" to become the heir to his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement.</p></div>

Polymarket's JD Vance ranks first in the 2028 US presidential election probability with 28%.

Following the controversy surrounding Fundstrat's Bitcoin views, co-founder Tom Lee responded, stating that the "contradictory predictions" seen by outsiders were actually research conclusions from different positions and timelines, not internal disagreements. Previously, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, suggested that Bitcoin might retrace to the $60,000-$65,000 range in the first half of 2026; while Tom Lee believed Bitcoin could reach new highs, even surging to $200,000 as early as the beginning of 2026. A Fundstrat...

Tom Lee responds to Fundstrat's "contradictory" views on Bitcoin: Different positions, different timelines, not internal disagreements.

Next Week's Key Preview

December 22nd

Aster: Phase 5 airdrop will begin on December 22nd and last for 6 weeks;

Espresso will open airdrop registration on December 22nd;

December 23rd

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third-quarter GDP data on December 23rd;

December 24th
U.S. and European stock markets will be closed for Christmas, and whether a "Christmas rally" will materialize remains uncertain;

The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20th;...

Must-watch items next week: US Bureau of Economic Analysis to release Q3 GDP data; Aster launches fifth phase of airdrop (December 22-28).

Source: Galaxy Research
Translation: Jinse Finance
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakout after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged liquidations, and the actions of whale...