Analysis: If we predict this bull market based on previous cycles, we should pay attention to the accelerated rise between Q3 this year and Q1 next year.

Mars Finance News, on August 8th, regarding the question "What stage is the crypto market currently in," Diwan from CoinDesk Data pointed out that historically, Bitcoin's most significant price appreciation occurs between 500 to 720 days after halving. Diwan mentioned that in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Bit reached its peak within this window. "If this pattern repeats, we should pay attention to a potential accelerated rise between the third quarter of 2025 and early first quarter of 2026, with the price trend in this cycle being notably more subdued compared to previous post-halving periods." Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management stated that the four-year cycle has ended, but to officially declare its death, Bit needs to perform well in 2026, which he predicts will happen. Hougan commented in an email, "I don't think we have eliminated volatility, but I believe, firstly, the historical forces that caused the four-year cycle are weaker than before; secondly, there are other powerful forces developing along different timelines that I believe will overwhelm our four-year cycle trend."