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ToggleBitcoin's price could break out strongly in 2025 due to three main factors: global money supply expansion, ETF wave, and capital inflow from retail investors.
Key Points:
- Record global money supply growth is a major driver for Bitcoin.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF may soon surpass gold holdings, enhancing BTC's reserve asset status.
- Retail investor capital is still limited but could trigger a strong price surge if mainstream interest returns.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $120,000 (last reaching this level on July 23), raising questions about the possibility of a new all-time high this year. However, global economic uncertainty and concerns about AI sustainability remain significant risks. In the short and medium term, these three drivers could pave the way for Bitcoin to far exceed its current market capitalization of $2.3 trillion.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to surpass gold's valuation of $23 trillion, while others believe completely separating from tech stocks will take more time due to early-stage adoption. Even if investor sentiment remains unchanged, global money supply expansion is creating a foundation for a new model, and Nvidia (NVDA) may be signaling this shift.
Bitcoin is showing notable similarities with Nvidia's price movements, while receiving support from long-term accumulation strategies and strong buying momentum from Metaplanet
Nvidia's valuation has surged from $2.3 trillion to $4.4 trillion in March, despite nearly unchanged net profit from the previous six months. This suggests traders may be betting on much higher future profit potential, or traditional valuation metrics are losing meaning as governments are expected to accelerate monetary expansion to address growing public debt pressures.
The M2 money supply from the 21 largest central banks reached a record $55.5 trillion in July, while the US federal budget deficit touched $1.3 trillion after just nine months. These factors strengthen the argument for Bitcoin investors, even as the strong correlation between BTC and tech stocks persists. However, retail investor capital has not yet emerged strongly, despite Bitcoin's 116% increase over the past year, which is expected to change soon.
The gap between Bitcoin's 116% increase and the S&P 500's average 22% profit is becoming a "magnet" for new capital, especially as cryptocurrency gains more mainstream media attention. Companies like Strategy (MSTR) and MetaPlanet (MTPLF) are also helping attract investor interest.
Currently, cryptocurrency trading apps like Coinbase and Robinhood show few signs of retail investor excitement, as neither has returned to the top 10 most popular apps since November 2024. While the specific catalyst to reignite this group's interest remains unclear, the market still has room for a price surge driven by retail investors in 2025, especially as traditional finance and the US government become more open to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is officially allowed to appear in 401(k) retirement accounts
Bitcoin is officially permitted in 401(k) retirement accounts after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, paving the way for cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets to participate in this retirement savings channel.
Michael Heinrich, co-founder and CEO of 0G Labs, notes that the new 401(k) regulation could "unlock trillions of dollars in retirement capital for Bitcoin." Matt Hougan, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, believes this could be a transformative turning point for the entire cryptocurrency industry.
Currently, US Bitcoin ETFs hold $150 billion in assets, compared to $198 billion for gold investment instruments as of July 2025, according to Forbes. When spot Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold's equivalent holdings, this milestone could strongly reinforce Bitcoin's image as a reserve asset, rather than just a speculative high-risk channel.
Over time, many institutional investors are likely to add Bitcoin to their portfolios, especially as it becomes increasingly recognized as a reserve asset for listed companies, national investment funds, and even governments. While the exact timing cannot be determined, Bitcoin's upward trajectory towards a new all-time high in 2025 seems clearly defined.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed or understood as legal or investment advice.
