XRP 's Bullish Pattern Meets Profit-Growing Sellers—Will the Price Hold?

XRP has increased by nearly 10% in the past week, benefiting from the overall cryptocurrency market price surge as the total market capital exceeded $4.13 trillion.

However, this price increase has also attracted sellers, and on-chain data suggests that short-term investors may have started taking profits.

Short-term investors begin to withdraw

HODL Waves, an index grouping coins by holding time, shows two main groups rapidly declining.

On 20/07/2025, wallets holding XRP for 3-6 months controlled about 12.07% of the supply. By 10/08/2025, this number had dropped to 8.93%. The group of XRP wallets from 1-3 months shows a similar trend, decreasing from 6.78% on 01/08/2025 to 5.83% at the time of writing.

The 1-3 month group accumulated most strongly when XRP was around $2.77. As they continue to sell, the profit-taking story is clearly confirmed.

HODL Waves are important because they reveal investor behavior over time. The decrease in the ratio of recent holders often means they are selling, typically to take profits after a price increase. This can signal a short-term shift in sentiment before broader market trends change.

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Exchange reserves indicate increasing selling pressure

When we connect the HODL Wave decline with exchange reserve data, the picture becomes clearer. In the past week, XRP reserves on exchanges have increased. History shows that increasing reserves combined with a decline in short-term HODL groups often precede a price correction.

We most recently saw this pattern on 22/07/2025, when reserves spiked and XRP price dropped from around $3.55 to $3.17 in one trading session. The reason is simple: coins transferred to exchanges are easier to sell. When this happens while some holding groups are declining, it often means profit-taking is occurring.

XRP price structure remains increasing; temporarily

On the 4-hour chart, XRP price continues to follow an ascending triangle pattern. The price increase setup has clear levels to watch. Resistance is at $3.34; if surpassed, it could open opportunities to $3.57 and the All-Time-High near $3.66.

On the downside, support is at $3.15. If it drops below that level, the price could fall to $3.07 and make the short-term structure negative.

For traders, the current argument that we might see a short-term consolidation before a new surge will be invalidated if the price closes above $3.34. Until then, the combination of profit-taking signals and increasing exchange reserves suggests caution.

In summary, the XRP chart still supports buyers, but short-term investor behavior and increasing reserves suggest momentum might slow down before a new surge. Traders should monitor the $3.15 level on the downside and $3.34 on the upside to determine the next major movement.