A popular Myriad market asks whether Donald Trump will visit China before the end of the year, and traders are split almost 50/50, pricing a roughly 48% chance that the former president sets foot on the mainland.
The Myriad contract resolves “Yes” only if Trump physically enters mainland China—airspace overflights or Hong Kong/Taiwan stopovers don’t count—before the end of the day on December 31. The resolution will be confirmed using official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting. See the full rules here.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt's parent company, DASTAN.)
Elsewhere, Polymarket lists a “Trump travel in 2025” market where China is among the top destinations, trading around 52% "yes" as of this writing range.
Kalshi—the regulated U.S. event-futures exchange—runs a narrower contract on whether Trump meets Xi Jinping this year, a move that would likely coincide with a formal state visit. Kalshi users are bullish on the prospects, penciling in a 73% change of Trump meeting the Chinese president.
This backdrop makes a 2025 trip a live possibility—exactly the kind of binary event prediction markets are built to price.
Traders watch all three: A leaked advance team trip or confirmed Trump-Xi call can quickly move prices across platforms.
With diplomatic prep accelerating, a Trump trip to China is plausible—and tradable. If you want the purest market on whether he goes, Myriad’s market is the cleanest play. For regulatory-compliant exposure, there’s Kalshi, and for a broader sentiment snapshot, Polymarket’s travel board is worth watching.
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